Daily Technical Forex Forecast 16.05.2017


EUR/USD

The euro continued growing after the strong bullish momentum that was last Friday. The growth was on medium volume + it was spread across the chart, so we can’t highlight any new volume levels.

The only actual level is the support 1.0914 – 1.0923, which contains really large volume.

volume euro

The price is trading near its local maximum, so that it is too risky to trade it now. We need to wait for the breakout of the maximum on large volume and after a small correction of the price we can open long positions. A stop loss should be set below the bullish momentum. A potential of the growth is 70-80 pips.

buy euro

GBP/USD

The pound has broken out the resistance, but failed to continues going up. The price is trading in the consolidation now, so we are unable to point out any new levels or zones.

We need to wait the price to come out of its consolidation and only after that we can trade GBP/USD. Until the breakout it’s better to stay out of the market.

volume gbp

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is also trading in the consolidation, but due to the strong uptrend we should consider long positions as the main scenario.

We can enter the market after the breakout of the local maximum on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the growth is around 80-90 pips.

buy jpy

USD/CAD

The price fell down and broke the lower boundary of the consolidation, but failed to continue falling. The move was on small volume, so it is impossible to point out any new levels or zones.

The oil price is also going up, so the Canadian dollar gets a support from it.

On the other hand, there is a strong uptrend for USD/CAD.

In such a situation I advise to skip this instrument from today’s trading plan.

trade cad

AUD/USD

We need to point out the new resistance 0.7441 which contains medium volume and stopped the growth of the price on Monday.

After its breakout we can consider opening long positions. The move should be on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed below the level 0.7490. A potential of the deal is around 60 pips.

buy aud

XAU/USD

Gold broke through the resistance level, but could not continue growing, and the price rebounded downward on increased volume. It is worth highlighting a new resistance level 1233.60 – 1236.40, in which large volume is concentrated, that stopped the movement upwards.

Also this level is the upper boundary of consolidation, in which the price is located.

volume gold

Thus, breaking up this mark will mean that the downtrend has ended and, most likely, the price will continue rising.

The breakdown of resistance 1233.60 – 1236.40 should be on large volume and sharp. After a fixation of the price above it, we can open long positions. A stop loss should be placed under the breakout volumetric bar. The target is 1250.00.

buy gold

As for sales, they should be considered only after the fall of XAU/USD below the level 1221.00.

The sentiment: scenarios for the euro and the yen are confirmed by the mood of the market. Due to the sentiment, long positions for the pound and the Canadian dollar should be in priority, but these instrument don’t have good situations for trading now. For the Australian dollar and gold, the situation did not change, but a technical analysis tells that long positions should be prior scenarios.

sentiment

The bottom line: the euro and the yen are in priority. The Australian dollar and gold can be only after breakouts of resistances.