Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 11, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

AUDUSD - 11.05.2017

Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.7335-0.7395 and the AUDUSD is ranging within the channel. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are steady and price has formed a bearish channel, all suggesting that the AUDUSD may break to the downside. Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. If the AUDUSD does break to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The recent sell-off in the commodity markets has weakened the AUD and other commodity currencies. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

US PPI and Unemployment figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURGBP - 11.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP was rejected around the bearish channel support area and has since been slightly bullish. Price is moving within a bearish channel and is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the EURGBP could move lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.8425 and 0.8435 and around any of the key Fib levels. Price may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

UK Manufacturing Production data will be released at 0930 UTC today. This is followed by a Bank of England Rate Announcement at 1200 UTC.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

EURUSD - 11.05.2017

The EURUSD has been quiet and has been moving sideways. The moving averages are still bearish and widening, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance). The EURUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.0855.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

US PPI and Unemployment figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

GBPUSD - 11.05.2017

Price continues to be indecisive and has now formed a tightening triangular consolidation pattern. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are tight, crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the consolidation support and resistance and if the GBPUSD moves out of the consolidation pattern (break-out trade). Price may stall or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2850 and 1.2985.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

UK Manufacturing Production data will be released at 0930 UTC today. This is followed by a Bank of England Rate Announcement at 1200 UTC. US PPI and Unemployment figures will be announced at 1330 UTC.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

NZDUSD - 11.05.2017

The NZDUSD continues to look be choppy and indecisive but price has formed a bearish channel, signalling that price may move out of the consolidation and start down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6850, 0.6885 and 0.6945, around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. The NZDUSD may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will not be rate hike in the foreseeable future. This has caused some weakness. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

US PPI and Unemployment figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCAD - 11.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bullish around the range support area. The USDCAD continues to range between the horizontal levels at 1.3640 and 1.3790. Price action has now also formed a tighter range within the current range at 1.3640-1.3745. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDCAD moves out of either of the ranges (break-out trades). The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the lack of trend momentum.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The strong sell-off of OIL is causing great weakness in the CAD and other commodity currency pairs. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

US PPI and Unemployment figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF - 11.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been bullish and has moved higher. Price is now looking a little over-extended, suggesting that the USDCHF is due a retracement and may become bearish. If price does start retracing, buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns.

US PPI and Unemployment figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDJPY - 11.05.2017

Price has been slightly bullish and has formed a higher high (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY has formed a horizontal channel at 113.70-114.35. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the USDJPY could break to the upside. Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 112.95.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

US PPI and Unemployment figures will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

XAUUSD - 11.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has moved above the bearish channel resistance area and has failed to trend lower. The moving averages are still bearish and widening though, signalling that price may move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1225.10 and 1234.80. If GOLD moves above the moving averages, price may attempt a bullish move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support) and as price moves above the identified resistance areas.