Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 10, 2017


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD - 10.05.2017

The AUDUSD has moved above the recent bearish channel. Price continues to be bearish and downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and are starting to widen again, suggesting that the AUDUSD may attempt a move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7375 and 0.7425. Price may stall or reverse around the previous bearish channel resistance area and around the identified diagonal support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The recent sell-off in the commodity markets has weakened the AUD and other commodity currencies. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A US Crude Oil Inventories figure is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 10.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved below the horizontal channel support area and has since been bearish. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the EURGBP could start down-trending. Price action has formed a bearish channel. Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.8425 and around the moving averages. The EURGBP may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

There is a European Central Bank Speech at 1300 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD - 10.05.2017

Price has moved below the bullish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the EURUSD may start down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist around the previous bullish channel support area, around the bearish moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

There is a European Central Bank Speech at 1300 UTC today. This is followed by a US Crude Oil Inventories figure at 1530 UTC.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD - 10.05.2017

The GBPUSD continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently. Price action has formed a higher low, suggesting that the GBPUSD may attempt a move above the recent swing high. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation support and resistance at 1.2850 and 1.2985 and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified diagonal support area.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A US Crude Oil Inventories figure is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 10.05.2017

Price continues to consolidate between the diagonal trend resistance and the horizontal support at 0.6850. The NZDUSD has also now formed a symmetrical triangle within the consolidation pattern. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the consolidation or symmetrical triangle pattern (break-out trades).

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A US Crude Oil Inventories figure is set to be released at 1530 UTC today. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce rates at 2200 UTC. This is followed by a Press Conference at 2300 UTC.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD - 10.05.2017

The USDCAD continues to range between the horizontal levels at 1.3640 and 1.3790. The moving averages are moving sideways and are tight – confirming the current market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Price action has formed a bullish channel within the range. Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish channel support area.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The strong sell-off of OIL is causing great weakness in the CAD and other commodity currency pairs. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A US Crude Oil Inventories figure is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF - 10.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has moved higher and continues to uptrend. Price is now retracing some of the recent rally. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the USDCHF may attempt another swing higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9995, 0.9970 and 0.9965.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns.

A US Crude Oil Inventories figure is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY - 10.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and uptrend. The USDJPY has moved above the bullish channel resistance area and the moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price could attempt a move even higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous bullish channel resistance area (as support), around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 113.00.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A US Crude Oil Inventories figure is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD - 10.05.2017

GOLD found resistance around the previous range support area at 1225.10 and around the bearish channel resistance and continues to be bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are tightening and price recently failed to reach the bearish channel support area, all signalling that GOLD may move above the channel resistance and attempt a bullish move. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance. Long opportunities could exist if price moves above the bearish channel resistance area. Price may stall or reverse bearish around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1225.10 and 1234.80.