The euro continued to fall after the election result in France and now is trading near the lower limit of the global consolidation 1.0863, which is also the technical level of support.
Unfortunately, due to the fact that the price went down on small volume it is impossible to point out any fresh volume levels or zones. Thus, 1.0863 is the cornerstone of the trading EUR/USD.
As can be seen from the volumetric chart, large volume is concentrated in this consolidation, so the exit of the price from it is likely to mark the beginning of a new local trend.
Given the confident fall of the price during this week, it is worth considering short positions. We can open sales only after a strong breakdown of the level 1.0863 on increased volume with further fixation of the price below it to insure against a false breakdown. A stop loss is worth placing above a breakdown volumetric bar. The target is 1.0730.
The situation for the pound remains unclear as the pair is trading in the consolidation + low liquidity on the market this week. It seems like big players are out of the market now.
All these facts make us are unable to highlight any levels or zones that can be used in trading GBP/USD.
So the best decision for the pound is to stay out of the market and wait for the returning of large volume on the market.
The yen continued growing up and now is trading too far away from the level of support, so that we don’t have a good place for a stop loss now. Anyway, there is a strong uptrend, that’s why we need to consider only long positions.
The best scenario will be a smooth correction of the price down, a creation of new volume support level and a strong rebound of the price up from it. A stop loss should be set below the new level. A target is the local maximum.
USD/CAD is still trading in the small consolidation below the level of resistance 1.3785, which is also a local maximum.
Given the strong uptrend, we should consider long positions after the breakout of the resistance. The move must be confident and on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volumetric bar. A potential of the deal is around 90-100 pips.
Our scenario for the Australian dollar remains the same: short positions after the resumption of the fall on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed above the level 0.7400. A potential of the fall is around 70-80 pips.
Gold has broken down the level of support 1226.00 – 1229.10 and is trading below it now. The correction of the price at the end of the day was on low volume, so it does not cancel our scenario.
Also, the level 1226.00 – 1229.10 is acts now as a resistance, because huge volume is concentrated in it.
We can open short positions after the resumption of the fall on increased volume. It will confirm that buyers are dominating the market and plan to push the price down.
A stop loss should be placed above the resistance. A potential of the deal is around 120 pips.
The sentiment: all our scenarios are confirmed, only the euro has an unclear situation. But the tendency of increasing of a number of traders in long positions is a good signal for us.
The bottom line: gold and the euro are the most interesting instruments for trading now. USD/JPY, AUD/USD and CAD/USD can be traded only after strong confirming signals.