Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 08, 2017


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD - 08.05.2017

The AUDUSD is still clearly down-trending but recent price action has been choppy. The AUDUSD is moving within horizontal channel at 0.7375-0.7430. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).  If the AUDUSD breaks to the upside, price may reverse around any of the key Fib levels. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the AUDUSD may break to the downside.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The recent sell-off in the commodity markets has weakened the AUD and other commodity currencies. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

Australian Retail Sales data will be released at 0230 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 08.05.2017

Price has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the EURGBP may attempt a move higher. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and if price moves above the bullish channel resistance area. If the EURGBP breaks to the downside of the bullish channel, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.8410. If the EURGBP breaks to the upside of the bullish channel, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.8530.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD - 08.05.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price was rejected around the previous range resistance at 1.0950 and the shorter-term moving average and is now attempting a bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the EURUSD could move higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal and diagonal support and resistance levels.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD - 08.05.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has moved higher and has been bullish. Price has formed a higher swing high and the GBPUSD continues to uptrend. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the identified diagonal resistance area (as support).

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 08.05.2017

The NZDUSD was rejected around the diagonal resistance area and continues to consolidate within the tightening triangular pattern (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation support and resistance areas. If price moves above the consolidation resistance area, the NZDUSD may attempt a bullish move higher.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD - 08.05.2017

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has finally moved below the bullish channel support area and has been bearish. The bullish moving averages are tightening and could cross bearish, signalling that the USDCAD could move lower. It is possible that price may start ranging instead, between the horizontal levels at 1.3640 and 1.3790. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages, around the previous bullish channel support area and if the USDCAD moves below the horizontal support at 1.3640.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The strong sell-off of OIL is causing great weakness in the CAD and other commodity currency pairs. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF - 08.05.2017

Price has been retracing and has stalled around the previous horizontal support at 0.9900 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the USDCHF may continue to downtrend within the bearish channel. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support at 0.9900 and around the bearish channel resistance area.

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF could strengthen if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY - 08.05.2017

The USDJPY is moving with a bullish channel and also within a horizontal channel at 112.15-113.00. The moving averages are tightening and starting to move sideways, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area. If the USDJPY breaks to the upside, price may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US or Europe returns. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD - 08.05.2017

Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 1225.10 and 1234.80 and is also moving within a bearish channel. GOLD has been clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is looking a little over-extended though, suggesting that GOLD may attempt a bullish move (retracement). Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. If GOLD breaks to the downside, price may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.