Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 04, 2017


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD - 04.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD closed below the 0.7490 support area and has moved to the bearish channel support area. Price is clearly down-trending. The moving averages have just crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the AUDUSD may move lower. Price is looking a little over-extended though, suggesting that the AUDUSD may be due a bullish move. If price starts retracing, selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be announced at 1330 UTC today. A Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Statement will be released at 0230 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 04.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the symmetrical triangle support area and continues to consolidate within a horizontal channel at 0.8410-0.8485 and within the symmetrical triangle. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the symmetrical triangle and horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of either of these areas (break-out trades).

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. A French Election is running for 2 weeks, the final result will be announced on 7th May 2017. This election may cause a lot of volatility on Euro pairs due to market uncertainty. The Euro has strengthened as recent polls have suggested that Macron – a centralist politician –  will win the election.

A UK Services PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. This is followed by a European Central Bank Speech at 1730 UTC.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD - 04.05.2017

Price continues to consolidate within a symmetrical triangle and range between the horizontal levels at 1.0855 and 1.0950. The moving averages are tight and have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the triangular and range support and resistance areas and if the EURUSD moves out of either of the patterns (break-out trades).

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. A French Election is running for 2 weeks, the final result will be announced on 7th May 2017. This election may cause a lot of volatility on Euro pairs due to market uncertainty. The Euro has strengthened as recent polls have suggested that Macron – a centralist politician –  will win the election.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a European Central Bank Speech at 1730 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD - 04.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been bearish and has moved below the bullish channel support area. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are steady, signalling that price may start ranging or attempt a move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance), around the bearish moving averages and around the identified diagonal resistance area. The GBPUSD may stall or reverse bullish around the horizontal levels at 1.2865 and 1.2770.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A UK Services PMI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 04.05.2017

The NZDUSD is looking a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and may cross again. From a technical view, there are very few areas that could provide trading opportunities. Buying opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. New Zealand Inflation Expectations data will be released at 0400 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD - 04.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was rejected around the moving averages and around the previous range resistance at 1.3680. The USDCAD has once again struggled to reach the bullish channel resistance area and the moving averages are starting to tighten, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move out of the channel. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. Selling opportunities could exist if price moves below the longer-term moving average and below the bullish channel support area. The USDCAD may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.3680 and 1.3640.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. OIL has been finding support around $48-$50. Any upside move may strengthen the Canadian Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. A Canadian Trade Balance figure will be announced at the same time. These events are followed by a Bank of Canada Speech at 2125 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF - 04.05.2017

Price continues to range and move between the horizontal levels at 0.9900 and 0.9965. The moving averages are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF may act as a safe-haven currency during the French election and as the Italian and other European elections near.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY - 04.05.2017

The USDJPY continues to uptrend and be bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the USDJPY may continue to move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area. Price may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US returns. The Yen may act as a safe-haven currency during the French election and as the Italian and other European elections near. The US Federal Reserve have kept rates at 1.00%. The next rate hike is expected in June 2017. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A US Unemployment Claims figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD - 04.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has moved lower and continues to downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the selling momentum may continue. If price pulls-back, opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal channel levels at 1253.05 and 1257.20 and around the trend resistance area. GOLD is looking a little over-extended, signalling that price is due a bullish retracement.