Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 03, 2017


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD - 03.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bearish around the bearish channel resistance area and has since moved lower. The AUDUSD is attempting a move towards the bearish channel support area. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and price is finding support around the horizontal level at 0.7490, all suggesting that the AUDUSD may fail to reach the other side of the channel. Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and if price closes below the horizontal level at 0.7490. Opportunities to go long may exist around the horizontal level.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades but there is no major economic indicator that suggests that the RBA will raise rates any time soon. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed be a Non-Manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC. The Fed will announce rates and provide a statement at 1900 UTC. Australian Trade Balance data will be announced at 0230 UTC. This is followed by a Reserve Bank of Australia Speech at 0410 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 03.05.2017

The EURGBP found support around the diagonal support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has since moved higher. Price continues to look choppy and has formed a symmetrical triangle. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and have been providing no clear direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance of the symmetrical triangle and if the EURGBP moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Price may stall or reverse around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8410, 0.8485 and 0.8525.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. A French Election is running for 2 weeks, the final result will be announced on 7th May 2017. This election may cause a lot of volatility on Euro pairs due to market uncertainty. The Euro has strengthened as recent polls have suggested that Macron – a centralist politician –  will win the election.

A UK Construction PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD - 03.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been moving off the symmetrical triangle support and resistance areas. Price continues to consolidate within the symmetrical triangle and within a horizontal channel at 1.0835-1.0950. The moving averages are tight and have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the triangle and horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of either of the patterns (break-out trades).

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. A French Election is running for 2 weeks, the final result will be announced on 7th May 2017. This election may cause a lot of volatility on Euro pairs due to market uncertainty. The Euro has strengthened as recent polls have suggested that Macron – a centralist politician –  will win the election.

A Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed be a Non-Manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC. The Fed will announce rates and provide a statement at 1900 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD - 03.05.2017

Price reversed bullish around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.2855 and around the bullish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD has struggled to reach the bullish channel resistance area and the moving averages are crossing bearish, both signalling that price may attempt a move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the identified diagonal resistance area and around the moving averages. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2855 and 1.2770.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. Recent economic indicators for the UK are suggesting an unexpected slow-down. There are some concerns that the UK leaving the EU is starting to have a negative impact on the British economy. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A UK Construction PMI figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. US Non-Farm Employment Change data will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed be a Non-Manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC. The Fed will announce rates and provide a statement at 1900 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 03.05.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and is forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the NZDUSD could continue to uptrend. Buying opportunities may exist around the identified diagonal support and resistance area, around the previous swing low at 0.6915 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed be a Non-Manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC. The Fed will announce rates and provide a statement at 1900 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD - 03.05.2017

The USDCAD moved above the range resistance area and has continued to uptrend within the identified bullish channel (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages continue to be bullish and are steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the previous range support and resistance at 1.3680 and 1.3640 and around the bullish channel support area. The USDCAD may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area. If price moves below the bullish channel support area, the USDCAD may attempt a bearish move lower.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. OIL has been finding support around $48-$50. Any upside move may strengthen the Canadian Dollar. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed be a Non-Manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC. The Fed will announce rates and provide a statement at 1900 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF - 03.05.2017

Price continues to range between the horizontal levels at 0.9905 and 0.9965. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the channel (break-out trade). The channel resistance has been tested several times, suggesting that if it is tested again it will not hold.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swiss National Bank recently decided to keep rates at -0.75%. The CHF may act as a safe-haven currency during the French election and as the Italian and other European elections near.

A Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed be a Non-Manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC. The Fed will announce rates and provide a statement at 1900 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY - 03.05.2017

The USDJPY has been bullish and has moved higher. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and are steady, signalling that the USDJPY may continue to uptrend and be bullish. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal level at 111.60. Price may stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US returns. The Yen may act as a safe-haven currency during the French election and as the Italian and other European elections near. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A Non-Farm Employment Change figure will be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed be a Non-Manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC. The Fed will announce rates and provide a statement at 1900 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD - 03.05.2017

GOLD is moving within a horizontal channel again but is still within the bearish channel. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas at 1253.00 and 1257.25 and if price moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that price may break to the downside. GOLD may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area. If price breaks to the upside, shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the identified horizontal levels.