Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 24-28.04


EUR/USD

French presidential election is in focus for the euro. It’s very important to see the reaction of the price on the result of this event. Probably, the market will open this a gap after the weekend.

Given these facts, it’s very difficult to analyze EUR/USD now. Nevertheless, there is one very interesting scenario – the breakdown of the support 1.0686 – 1.0700 which uphold the price and contains large volume.

volume euro

As can be seen from the chart, this level was tested and the price rebounded up from it. But the growth of the price was on very small volume, so this move can be ignored at all.

So we can enter the market and open long positions after the strong breakdown of the support. A stop loss should be placed above the breakout volumetric bar. A potential of the deal is 80-90 pips.

sell euro

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is trading in the consolidation above the level of support 1.2745 – 1.2773. Also we need to highlight the upper boundary of the range, it’s the level 1.2852 and the accumulation of volume in it. Seems like big players gains positions there, so, most probably, we will see a strong local trend after the breakout of the consolidation.

volume gbp

Given the strong uptrend and the presence of the support level, long positions are in priority, so that we should point out 2 scenarios for the pound:

  1. A test of the support and a rebound of the price from it on really large volume. After a little correction of the price we can open long positions with a stop loss set below the support.
  2. A growth of the price from the current level and a breakout of the level 1.2852 on increased volume which will be a great signal for opening purchases. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volumetric bar.

The target for both scenarios is 1.3000.

buy gbp

USD/JPY

The yen one more time failed to break out the resistance 109.21 – 109.34, but still the price could not continue falling and now is trading in the local consolidation near this level. It is very important that the price did not show sharp downward move after the last test of the resistance, because it tells us that sellers do not have enough power to resume downtrend.

In such situation the best decision will be trading the yen after the final breakout of the level 109.21 – 109.34 on large volume, which opens us a good possibility to buy USD/JPY. A stop loss should be set below the breakout volumetric bar. A potential of the deal is around 130-140 pips.

buy jpy

USD/CAD

Against the background of the fall of the oil price, USD/CAD continued its growth. Unfortunately, the price movement is not supported by any significant volume, therefore it is impossible to single out any new levels or zones from which trading scenarios could be considered. In addition, the pair is close to the global maximum now, so the probability of correction is quite high.

In general, there is no good situation for trading this pair, however, in case of a smooth correction of the price down, we can search for options for buying this instrument.

cad

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is currently trading in the consolidation. The fall of the price last week was on small volume, which does not allow us to identify any new volume levels. It is worth highlighting only a local minimum of 0.7476, the breakdown of which will be an excellent signal for sales.

It is important that this movement will be on large volume and sharp. A stop loss should be placed just above the breakdown volumetric bar. The potential of the deal is about 100 points.

sell aud

XAU/USD

The price of gold is still trading above the support level 1276.80 – 1279.00, but it could not to resume its growth and is trading in the consolidation. Yes, after the test of the level gold grew up, but this move was smooth, so we can’t consider it as a beginning of the uptrend. Also we need to highlight a large accumulation of volume concentrated inside the range, so the breakout of it will be a great signal for entering the market.

volume gold

Long positions should be considered only after the breakout of the upper boundary of the consolidation, but given that the price fails to rebound sharply from the support and a strong fall of silver, which is in correlation with gold, I think that a fall of the price and a breakdown of the level 1276.80 – 1279.00 is more likely to happen. It will give us a great possibility to open short positions with a stop loss set above the breakout volumetric bar. A potential of the deal is around 170-180 pips, so it can give us a great profit.

trade gold

The sentiment: it is necessary to notice that the mood of the “crowd” for the euro started changing in the direction of purchases which means that traders close short positions and open long positions. It is a good signal for us. Scenarios for the pound and the Canadian dollar are confirmed. There are no changes for both the yen and gold, that’s why it is advisable to trade these instruments carefully.

sentiment

The bottom line: EUR/USD and GBP/USD are in priority now. USD/JPY and XAU/USD are also potentially interesting in case of an appearance of additional signals. AUD/USD should be traded only after the breakout of the support or a creation of new volumetric levels or zones. USD/CAD does not have a good situation for trading, but long positions should be in priority for it.