Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 21, 2017


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD - 21.04.2017

Price continues to move between the horizontal levels at 0.7475 and 0.7610. The AUDUSD has formed a bullish channel as well as the horizontal channel, suggesting that price may attempt a move towards the bullish channel resistance area. The moving averages are bearish but are starting to tighten slightly, signalling slight market indecision. Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area. Selling opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average.

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%. The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 21.04.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP reversed bearish around the 50.0% Fib level and is now attempting a bearish move lower. The moving averages are bearish but are beginning to tighten, suggesting that a bearish move may fail. Opportunities to go short could exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend resistance area. Opportunities to go long could exist around the previous swing low at 0.8340.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. A French Election is running for 2 weeks, the final result will be announced on 7th May 2017. This election may cause a lot of volatility on Euro pairs due to the uncertainty of the outcome (there is a mix of pro EU and anti EU candidates). If Le Pen or Melenchon win the election, there could be a large Euro sell-off.

A UK Retails Sale figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD - 21.0

The EURUSD was bullish and moved much higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but the bullish move has been reversed. Price could be forming a head and shoulder pattern and the moving averages are tightening, signalling that the EURUSD could attempt a bearish move. Selling opportunities may exist as price forms the 2nd shoulder of the pattern. Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.0675 and 1.0680.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Eurozone is looking more stable. There are some concerns though that the UK leaving the EU may weaken the European economy and weaken the Euro. A French Election is running for 2 weeks, the final result will be announced on 7th May 2017. This election may cause a lot of volatility on Euro pairs due to the uncertainty of the outcome (there is a mix of pro EU and anti EU candidates). If Le Pen or Melenchon win the election, there could be a large Euro sell-off.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD - 21.04.2017

Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.2770-1.2850 and the GBPUSD is moving within the channel. The moving averages are bullish though, suggesting that price could move higher. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages.

Article 50 has been triggered – the UK has started negotiations on leaving the European Union. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. The British Prime Minister has announced an unexpected general election to be held on 8th June. The purpose of this election is to form a majority government in order to strengthen government unity. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar may continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

A UK Retails Sale figure will be released at 0930 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 21.04.2017

The NZDUSD is looking indecisive and is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.6985 and 0.7050. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD - 21.04.2017

Price has been very bullish but is now retracing some of the recent rally. The USDCAD has formed a head and shoulder pattern and is moving below the shorter-term moving average, signalling that the retracement may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels. If price attempts a bullish move, the USDCAD may stall or reverse around the recent swing high and psychological level at 1.3500.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

Canadian CPI data will be announced at 1330 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF - 21.04.2017

The USDCHF is looking a little indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and become more bullish, suggesting that selling momentum is weakening. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9945-0.9995. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the USDCHF moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the trend resistance area.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swiss National Bank have kept rates at -0.75%.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY - 21.04.2017

Price has been bullish and has moved out of the recent consolidation area. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that the USDJPY could move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 109.20, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US returns. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 1.00%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected.

There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD - 21.04.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD continues to move within the bearish channel and has found resistance around the shorter-term moving average. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, signalling that the current downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and if price moves below the bearish channel support area. GOLD may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.