After the fall of the price during the release of the payrolls, the pair EUR/USD showed a slight correction on Monday. It is worth noting that the price growth was on small volume, so our scenario of opening short positions remains actual. Also, the volumetric resistance level 1.0617 – 1.0633 and the upper limit of the consolidation 1.0681 remain relevant. In addition, the price is trading under local consolidation now, in which the price has been standing for more than a week, so volume accumulated in this range acts as another resistance + the presence of a strong downtrend. Thus, all factors indicate a further continuation of the price fall.
Therefore, now the euro should be traded only from the side of short positions. Shorts can be opened after a slight correction of the price to the level 1.0617 – 1.0633; the price growth should be smooth and without large volume. A stop loss must be set for the level 1.0681. The target is 1.0500.
We need to highlight a smooth correction of the price on Monday. This move was on small volume, so it should not be considered as a reverse signal. Moreover, this growth gives us an opportunity to open short positions with a better price.
Short positions should be opened after a stoppage of the correction and a resuming of the fall of the pound on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed above the level 1.2455. A potential of the deal is around 100-120 pips.
After the test of the resistance level 111.13 – 111.38, USD/JPY returned trading inside the consolidation between the resistance and the support 110.20 – 110.43 and further move of the price is pretty indefinite. That’s why we can trade this currency pair only after the breakout of the boundaries of the consolidation. A breakout should be on sharp and on increased volume.
The growth of the oil price caused the correction of USD/CAD and the breakdown of the support level. After this move the price returned trading inside the consolidation. Overall, the situation is pretty difficult because we have two strengthening currencies. So for now my advice is to stay out of the market for USD/CAD.
The Australian dollar also showed a smooth correction to the level of resistance 0.7530 – 0.7538. The growth of the price was on small volume, so our previous scenario for opening short positions is actual. It’s better to enter the market after a small smooth correction to get a better price for enter. A stop loss should be placed above the level 0.7547.
Our previous scenario for gold remains the same: the price continues trading in the consolidation between the resistance 1267.40 – 1270.00 and the support 1239.60 – 1242.60, but given the strong fall of the price after the payrolls short positions are in priority.
As you can see from the volumetric chart above there was a correction of the price on Monday, but it was on small volume, so it does not play a big role, but if this move continues, we can get a good point for opening short positions. A stop loss should be set above the resistance. A potential of the deal is around 200 pips.
The sentiment: scenarios for EUR/USD and AUD/USD are confirmed by the mood of the market. For the pound the situation is 50/50, but still short positions are in priority. For USD/CAD and USD/JPY situations are complicated, because these instruments are trading in consolidations. The sentiment for gold, most obviously, has not reacted yet on the change of the price.
The bottom line: the euro and the Australian dollar have the best situations for trading. The pound and gold are potentially interesting, but need to get an additional signals to be able to trade them.