Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 10-14.04.2017


EUR/USD

After the fake growth of the euro during the payrolls, the H1 bar closed with a pin-bar and the price started falling down on increased volume. Moreover, the bigger part of volume is concentrated at the top/middle of the bar. It is worth noting the resistance level 1.0681 which was tested after the payrolls and then the price went down.

volume euro

Also we need to highlight that the price is trading below the previous consolidations of the price now and the volumetric accumulation acts like a resistance.

Given all these facts+the presence of the strong downtrend, short positions are in priority. We can enter the market after a smooth correction of the price. A stop loss should be set above the level 1.0681. The target is 1.0500.

sell euro

GBP/USD

The pound continued falling after the release of the payrolls and finally broke down the lower boundary of the consolidation. We need to point out that the fall of the price was on increased volume, so short positions are in priority now.

volume gbp

We can enter the market after a smooth correction of the price to get a better price. A correction should be on small volume. Stop loss should be set above the level 1.2451. The target is 1.2265.

sell gbp

USD/JPY

After the release of the news about the labor market in the USA, the yen had tested the support level 110.20 – 110.43 after which it rebounded back on very large volume and tested the resistance 111.13 – 111.38. Overall, USD/JPY is trading in the consolidation between this two levels.

volume jpy

Given the strong growth of the price and strengthening of the US dollar it is more possible that the price will breakout the resistance. If the price does it on large volume, it will be a great signal for opening long positions with a stop loss below the level 110.80. The target is 112.60.

buy jpy

USD/CAD

The new level of support 1.3353 – 1.3374 should be allocated for the Canadian dollar, which was formed after the news on the labor market in the United States. Large volume is concentrated in this level and it pushed the price up.

volume cad

Thus, until the price breaks down this level, it is worth giving priority to long positions. We can open purchases after a slight smooth correction of the price, stop loss must be set under the support level. The target is 1.3525.

It is important to pay attention to the oil price, if its growth continues, this deal will not look so attractive.

buy cad

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar, like other major currency pairs, fell against the US dollar. It is worth highlighting the new volume resistance level 0.7530 – 0.7538, which pushed the price down.

volume aud

Considering the presence of the strong resistance and a downtrend, short positions are in priority for AUD/USD. We can enter the market after a small correction of the price, a stop loss must be set above the level 0.7547. The potential of the deal is about 100 points.

sell aud

XAU/USD

After a strong growth of gold on large volume during the weak payrolls, the price fell down sharply and almost fully covered the previous bullish momentum. We need to highlight the new level of resistance 1267.40 – 1270.00 where large volume is concentrated that, firstly, had stopped the price growth and then pushed it down on large volume. The support level 1239.60 – 1242.60 is still actual.

volume gold

So now we can point out 2 possible scenarios of trading gold:

  1. If the price corrects up on small volume, we can consider opening short positions with a stop loss above the resistance 1270.00. The target is 1240.00
  2. If the price goes down further and breaks down the support on large volume, we can open short positions. A stop loss should be set above a breakdown volumetric bar. The target is 1223.00.

sell gold

The sentiment: our scenarios for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD are confirmed by the mood of the “crowd”. The sentiment for USD/JPY and XAU/USD, more probably, have not reacted to the changes after the payrolls yet. So this fact don’t cancel our scenarios, but we need to watch for further changes of this indicator.

sentiment

The bottom line: EUR/USD and AUD/USD are prior pairs for trading, USD/CAD and GBP/USD also have interesting situations for opening deals. USD/JPY and gold should be traded only after additional signals.