Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 03-07.04


EUR/USD

EUR/USD continued falling and has already broken down the global level of support, which tells us that buyers don’t have enough power to uphold the price. It is necessary to highlight a new level of resistance 1.0695 from with the breakdown move started.

volume euro

As you can see from the chart above, the fall of the price was on increased volume, so now we should consider opening short positions. We can enter the market after a correction of the price with further rebound on large volume. Stop loss should be set above the breakout volumetric bar. The target is 1.0550.

sell euro

GBP/USD

The pound had failed to continue its local downtrend and then broke out the level of resistance and now is trading above it. We need to highlight the new level of support 1.2515 – 1.2526 where high volume is concentrated.

volume gbp

This level can be used for opening long positions, but after an additional signal, because overall the price is trading inside the local consolidation. We can enter the market after the test of the support with further bullish momentum on increased volume from it. Stop loss should be set below the level of support. A potential of the growth is 120-130 pips.

buy gbp

USD/JPY

The yen returned trading inside its consolidation after the weakening of the US dollar. Also we need to point out the level of support 111.05 – 111.20, which is the cornerstone in trading this instrument. Moreover, quite large volume is accumulated in this level.

volume jpy

This level can be traded for both sides:

  1. If the price breaks it down and goes further, we can sell the yen with a stop loss above the breakdown volumetric bar. The breakdown should be on large volume. The potential of the deal is 100-120 pips.
  2. If the price tests this level and starts growing on increased volume, long positions can be opened. Stop loss should be set below the support. The potential of the deal is around 150 pips.

trade jpy

USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar remains trading in its global consolidation between the support 1.3275 – 1.3384 and the resistance 1.3387 – 1.3404. Now the whole situation is totally confusing: the strengthen US dollar and the support of CAD by the growth of the oil price. That’s why there are now good deals on this instrument, so I advise to remove this pair from the trading plan until the price breaks out of the consolidation.

volume cad

AUD/USD

For the Australian dollar, the situation is also quite complicated: the price is in the global consolidation and some fresh volume levels are rather difficult to allocate. The resistance level of 0.7610 remains actual, which is the lower limit of the consolidation.

volume aud

The only possible scenario for trading is a breakdown of the level of support on increased level and the continuation of the fall of the price. Stop loss should be placed above the breakdown volumetric bar. The potential of the fall is 100-120 points.

sell aud

XAU/USD

After the test of the level of support 1239.60 – 1242.60 the gold price has grown up on pretty large volume (which is very important) and now is trading in the middle of its local consolidation. The resistance level 1260.00 is still actual for trading. There is a huge accumulation of the volume inside this consolidation, so its breakout will be a great signal for entering the market.

volume gold

That’s why we can highlight two possible scenarios for trading gold:

  1. If the price goes up further and breaks out the level of resistance long positions can be opened with the stop loss set below the breakout volumetric chart. A potential of the growth is around 150 pips.
  2. If the price resumes falling and breaks down the support level on increased volume, we can open short positions. Stop loss should be set above the breakdown volumetric bar. The target is 1224.00.

Until the price exits from the consolidation, we should stay out of the market.

trade gold

The sentiment: our scenarios for EUR/USD and GBP/USD are confirmed. All other currencies are in consolidations, so it does not make sense to look at the mood of the market. We just need to wait for the breakout of consolidations and then watch for changes of the sentiment.

sentiment

The bottom line: the euro deal is in priority. The pound and gold also have pretty interesting situations for trading after the exit from their consolidations.