Daily Technical Forex Forecast 30.03.2017


EUR/USD

EUR/USD broke down its support zone and continued falling on increased volume. It tells us that buyers don’t have enough power to support the price and bears are dominating the market now. There are no new volumetric levels, but we need to note the bearish momentum that was on Wednesday.

volume euro

So now short positions are in priority, but unfortunately there is no good place for our stop loss. That’s why we need to wait for new volumetric level that can be used for such a purpose. The best scenario: smooth correction of the price for around 20-30 pips, appearance of huge volume and creating a new level of resistance then the price starts falling. Stop loss should be set above the level 1.0795. The target is 1.0680.

sell euro

If the price continues its way down without a correction, we need to wait until it breaks the support level 1.0669 – 1.0685.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is trading below its precious level of support.  It is also worth highlighting a new volumetric resistance level, which was formed on Wednesday and after which the price fell down very sharply. This is the level of 1.2460 – 1.2473.

volume gbp

Thus, we have a level from which we can open short positions, however, I do not advise you to put the stop loss directly above it, since it is not so strong and the price can simply “take off” the stop loss and then continue falling further.

GBP/USD trading scenario is next: we are waiting for the correction of the price to the level of 1.2460 – 1.2473 (to get a better entry price) and after the stoppage of the price/continuation of the fall we sell it. Stop loss should be placed above the level 1.2520 (the beginning of a volumetric price fall). The first target is 1.2350, after which it is worthwhile to move the stop loss to the breakeven. The second target is 1.2260.

sell gbp

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is still trading is the consolidation, so it’s very difficult to point off any scenarios of trading this instruments as well as any new interesting facts or levels. Moreover, the pair is trading on small volume. That’s why I advise you to skip this pair until the price breaks out the boundaries of this consolidation and continues its move. But now there is no good scenario for trading it.

jpy

USD/CAD

Because of the growth of the oil price, USD/CAD fell down from the level of resistance. But still this currency pair is trading inside its consolidation, so until it breaks it out, it is advised to stay out of the market for the instrument.

If the price of oil continues going up, short positions for USD/CAD are in priority, but they should be opened only after the breakdown of the level 1.3275 – 1.3284.

sell cad

AUD/USD

AUD/USD grew up from the level of support but this move was on small volume. Besides it the pair is still trading inside its global consolidation, so until it breaks out its boundaries or creates some new strong volumetric level I advise not to trade this instrument.

aud

XAU/USD

Gold is locked is the consolidation between two levels: the resistance 1260.00 and the support 1239.60 – 1242.60. Also it is worth noting a presence of huge concentration of volume inside this consolidation. It seems like an accumulation of positions now, so when the price breaks out the boundaries of the consolidation we will see a strong and sharp move.

volume gold

So we should note 2 possible scenarios:

  1. The fall of the price and the breakdown of the support on increased volume will give us a possibility to open short positions. Stop loss should be set below the breakout volumetric bar. The first target is 1224.00, the second – 1210.00.
  2. Resuming of the growth of the price and the breakout of the resistance on huge volume with further fixation of the price above it. In such case we can consider opening long positions with a stop loss below the breakout volumetric bar. The potential of the deal is around 150 pips.

trade gold

Sentiment: as we can see from the chart below, deals on the euro and the pound are confirmed. For gold more traders are in short positions, so it’s an additional signal for opening long positions, but I do not advise to hurry up and wait for the breakout of the consolidation. The same situations are for USD/JPY, USD/CAD and AUD/USD.

sentiment

The bottom line: GBP/USD has the best situation for trading today, so I advise to take a closer look at this instrument.