Weekly Technical Forex Forecast 27-31.03


EUR/USD

EUR/USD is still trading inside its local consolidation near the level of resistance 1.0795 – 1.0816 which is a cornerstone in trading this instrument. We need to note that there is a huge volumetric accumulation in the consolidation that does not allow the rice to continue further growth. Anyway, long positions are in priority due to the presence of the strong uptrend and level of support. That’s why we need to consider only the breakout of this level and opening of purchases.

volume euro

The breakout of the level 1.0816 should be on increased volume, this conditions is a must. After a small correction of the price we can enter the market. Stop loss should be placed below the level 1.0761. The first target is 1.0900, after the price reaches it, it is desirable to move a stop loss to the breakeven and then just hold the deal until the appearance of a reversal signal.

buy euro

GBP/USD

The situation for GBP/USD is the same as for the euro: the price os trading in the local consolidation a bit higher than its level of support 1.2430 – 1.2453, where huge volume is concentrated, that previously pushed the price up. It is worth noting that quite large volume is accumulated in this consolidation, but still our scenario for opening purchases is still relevant.

volume gbp

We have 2 scenarios for opening long positions for the pound:

  1. Further growth of the price from the current level and a breakout of the local maximum on increased volume. Stop loss should be set below a breakout bar. A potential of the deal is about 80-90 pips.
  2. Bullish momentum on increased volume after a test of the support 1.2430 – 1.2453 will be a great signal for entering the market. Stop loss should be set a bit below the level 1.2430. A potential of the deal is about 100-120 pips. When the price reaches the local maximum, it’s better to replace a stop loss to the breakeven. This scenario is more preferable.

buy gbp

USD/JPY

A new level of support was created for the USD/JPY currency pair – 110.75. The price has been trading in the consolidation above this level for few days. Also we need to point out that this level was tested 2 times which makes it even more important for trading the yen.

volume jpy

But still short positions are in priority, because the US dollar is weak and there is a string downtrend. So the breakdown of this level and further fall of the price seem like more possible scenario. Sales can be opened after the breakout of the support on increased volume and fixes below it. Stop loss should be set a bit higher of a breakdown volumetric bar. A potential of the deal is 100-120 pips.

sell jpy

USD/CAD

USD/CAD is trading inside the resistance 1.3352 – 1.3373 and it more likely will break it out.

volume cad

Nevertheless, a general situation for this instrument is rather confusing: the weakened US dollar against the weakened Canadian dollar (because of the fall of the price of oil).

Of course, if the price finally breaks the resistance level on increased volume, we can consider opening long positions with a stop loss under a breakout volumetric bar with a potential of 90-100 points.

But I think this deal is rather risky, so I advise you not to trade this instrument yet.

buy cad

AUD/USD

AUD/USD has broken down the support zone, but made it on rather small volume, that does not allow us to open short positions from the current level because the possibility of the correction is very high.

volume aud

There is a large accumulation of volume above, which strengthens the sales scenario, but there is no good place to put a stop loss, and if you take into account the fundamental factors, now this pair is not the best for trading (weak US dollar, weak Australian dollar).

As an option, short positions can be opened after a slight correction and a sharp fall of the price on increased volume. Stop loss can be set a little above the volumetric bearish bar. The target is 0.7520.

sell aud

XAU/USD

Gold could not continue its growth and now is trading is the local consolidation a little bit higher its level of support 1239.60 – 1242.60. Also we need to highlight a new level of resistance 1250.30, that stopped the price growth. So overall this instrument is locked between these two levels, moreover there is a huge accumulation of volume inside this range.

volume gold

Given all these facts and noting a strong uptrend and support long positions should be opened only after the breakout of the level 1250.30. This move must be on large volume and after the fixations of the price above it we can enter the market. Stop loss should be put a little bit below the breakout bar. A potential of the deal is around 130-140 pips.

buy gold

Sentiment: this week all our scenarios are confirmed by the mood of the market.

sentiment

The bottom line: EUR/USD and USD/JPY have the most interesting and perspective situations for trading. Gold and the pound also can be traded if they break their levels of resistance. USD/CAD and AUD/USD is better to skip from a trading plan.