Daily Technical Forex Forecast 21.03.2017


EUR/USD

EUR/USD continues trading in the little consolidation a bit below its resistance level 1.0769 – 1.0781, which is our cornerstone in trading this instrument. The price tried to break this level, but failed and went down after the test, thus, this fall was on low volume, so our scenario for opening long positions is still actual.

volume euro

Also it is worth noting a concentration of volume below the level of resistance, it’s a signal that the price is planning to break it out and go further up. Long positions should be opened only after the breakout of the level 1.0769 – 1.0781 on increased volume and a fixation of the price above it. Stop loss must be placed below the breakout volumetric bar, potential of the deal is around 80-100 pips.

buy euro

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD currency pair went down on Monday as the US dollar regain part of its positions, but the fall of the price was on low volume, it should be estimated as a correction after the growth. So our previous scenario is still actual and long positions are in priority.

volume gbp

As can be seen from the chart above, there are no new significant levels for the pound, so we need to wait for some fresh volumetric support level from which we can buy GBP/USD and set stop loss below this level. After the creation of new volumetric level, the price should bounce up from it on increased volume. It will be a good signal for entering the market. Potential of the deal is around 100-120 pips.

buy gbp

USD/JPY

After the correction of the price during the European session, USD/JPY continued its fall and now trading near its local minimum. Also we can point out that almost all volume is concentrated at the top of the chart, so short positions are in priority.

There are no new levels or zones that can be highlighted, because the market is weak on Monday.

volume jpy

Unfortunately, the market did not give a good point for enter before resuming its fall. Now the situation should be considered as untradeable and it’s better to stay of the market.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD remains trading between too levels: resistance 1.3358 – 1.3384 and support 1.3295. So until the price breaks one of this levels it’s better to stay out of the market. Of course, short positions have an advantage, because of weak US dollar after the rate hike, so it’s better to open short positions after the breakdown of the support. Stop lose should be placed above the breakout volumetric bar. Potential of the deal is around 150 pips.

sell cad

If the price continues rising (especially if the price of oil falls down), it’s better to be out of the market (2 weak currencies).

AUD/USD

AUD/USD continued its growth and now renew its local maximum. But the growth was on small volume, so it’s not the best idea to open positions now. It’s better to wait for some correction after which the price resumes rising on increased volume. In such situation long positions can be opened with the stop loss 0.7663 or below the volumetric bullish momentum (riskier scenario). Potential of the further growth is about 100 pips.

buy aud

XAU/USD

Despite the absence of important macroeconomic news and the fact that Monday is usually a fairly calm day due to low liquidity, gold continued its growth and broke through resistance level 1230.90 – 1232.90, which is an excellent bullish signal. It is important to note that the breakdown was on small volume during the Asian session, so it is very risky to open long positions from the current level because of the probability of price correction.

volume gold

Therefore, it is possible to open long positions only after a bullish momentum on increased volume and after a small correction of the price it is worth entering the market. Stop loss should be set below 1229.70 (if the price corrects below this level before the strong growth, then it is worthwhile to put a stop loss under the bottom point of this “rollback”). The target is 1250.00.

buy gold

 

Sentiment: all our scenarios, except USD/CAD, are confirmed by the mood of the market.

sentiment

The bottom line: EUR/USD and XAU/USD have the best situations for trading.