Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 02, 2017

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to find support and be rejected at the horizontal channel support area. Price is choppy and ranging within the horizontal channel (0.7640-0.7730). The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the AUDUSD could move below the channel support area. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been bullish and has moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Price has stalled around the horizontal resistance at 0.8585 and may now retrace bearish. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.8550, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and if the EURGBP moves above the resistance at 0.8585.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. UK Construction PMI data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to move within the bearish channel. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the EURUSD could move lower. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area. Price may stall or reverse bullish around the previous swing low and psychological level at 1.0500 ad around the bearish channel support area.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been bearish and has moved much lower. Price has been finding support and may now attempt to retrace some of the recent bearish move. Opportunities to go short could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous bearish triangle support and resistance, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support at 1.2395. The moving averages are bearish, signalling that the GBPUSD could continue to downtrend.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A UK Construction PMI figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today. US Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1330 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The NZDUSD is looking bearish but is also looking choppy and a little indecisive. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the recent downtrend may continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages and if price moves below the horizontal support at 0.7115. If the NZDUSD continues to retrace the recent bearish move, price could stall or reverse bearish around the previous horizontal support at 0.7180.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady, though recent unemployment data was much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to uptrend and move higher. The moving averages continue to be bullish and widening, suggesting that buying momentum is not weakening. If the USDCAD starts to retrace, buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the previous bullish channel resistance area.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar, so has positive employment data. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. A Canadian GDP figure will be announced at the same time.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to look choppy and indecisive and move within a bullish channel. The moving averages confirm the current lack of momentum – they are crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and if the USDCAD moves above the horizontal resistance at 1.0125. Opportunities to go short could exist if price finds resistance around the horizontal resistance at 1.0125.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has been bullish and has moved higher. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price could uptrend. If the USDJPY starts retracing today, opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish moving averages.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1330 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As identified in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD reversed bullish around the previous horizontal resistance at 1238.75. The recent retracement has been strong though, suggesting that price may struggle to form a higher swing high. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bearish and are widening. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and if GOLD moves below the horizontal support at 1237.90. If price moves above the trend resistance area, GOLD may attempt a bullish move higher but price could struggle to form a swing above the recent high at 1263.00.

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