Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 28, 2017


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD - 28.02.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the bullish channel support area but the AUDUSD is now ranging within a horizontal channel at 0.7665-0.7695. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are crossing frequently and providing no clear direction.  Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area. The AUDUSD could stall or reverse bearish around the horizontal resistance at 0.7730.

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Preliminary GDP figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by Consumer Confidence data at 1500 UTC and a speech by Trump at 0200 UTC. Australian GDP will be announced at 0030 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 28.02.2017

The EURGBP has been bullish and has formed consecutive higher swing highs. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, signalling that price could continue to be bullish and uptrend. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous swing high at 0.8490 and around the trend support area.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD - 28.02.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed bearish around the bearish channel resistance area. Price continues to downtrend within the identified bearish channel. The moving averages are bullish though, suggesting that the EURUSD may attempt a move back to the bearish channel resistance area. Selling opportunities could exist around the channel resistance area and if price moves below the moving averages. Buying opportunities could exist if the EURUSD moves above the channel resistance area.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Preliminary GDP figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by Consumer Confidence data at 1500 UTC and a speech by Trump at 0200 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD - 28.02.2017

Price continues to be choppy and move within the horizontal channel at 1.2395-1.2570. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are crossing frequently and providing no clear direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Preliminary GDP figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by Consumer Confidence data at 1500 UTC and a speech by Trump at 0200 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 28.02.2017

The NZDUSD continues to range and has moved off the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a bearish channel within the horizontal channel. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and if price moves below the bearish channel support area. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if the NZDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). The moving averages are crossing frequently and moving sideways – confirming the current market indecision.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady, though recent unemployment data was much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Preliminary GDP figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by Consumer Confidence data at 1500 UTC and a speech by Trump at 0200 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD - 28.02.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has found resistance around the horizontal channel resistance area. Price continues to be choppy and move within the horizontal channel at 1.3025-1.3200. Price action has formed a bullish channel within the horizontal channel. The moving averages are crossing frequently and providing no clear market direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar, so has positive employment data. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Preliminary GDP figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by Consumer Confidence data at 1500 UTC and a speech by Trump at 0200 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF - 28.02.2017

Just like many currency pairs, the USDCHF is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified support and resistance areas.

The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Preliminary GDP figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by Consumer Confidence data at 1500 UTC and a speech by Trump at 0200 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY - 28.02.2017

Price has come off the bearish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is now ranging within a horizontal channel at 111.95-112.85. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that price could move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and if price moves below the horizontal channel support at 111.95. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. The US Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Preliminary GDP figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by Consumer Confidence data at 1500 UTC and a speech by Trump at 0200 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD - 28.02.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD continued to uptrend but is now retracing some of the recent bullish move. The moving averages are bullish but are starting to move sideways. Long opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1238.75 and 1242.65.