Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 16, 2017


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD - 16.02.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD moved above the horizontal channel resistance and has been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7695 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. A US Building Permit figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. US Manufacturing and Unemployment data will be released at the same time.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 16.02.2017

The EURGBP continues to be choppy and lack clear direction. Price has found resistance around the diagonal resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current market indecision. Price has formed a tightening consolidation pattern. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation support and resistance and if the EURGBP moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade).

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD - 16.02.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has started retracing and has been bullish. The EURUSD is above the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening, all suggesting that the bullish retracement could continue. Long opportunities may exist around the previous trend resistance and around the moving averages. Price could stall or reverse bearish around any of the key Fib levels. This could create shorting opportunities.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Building Permit figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. US Manufacturing and Unemployment data will be released at the same time.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD - 16.02.2017

Price action has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. The moving averages are finally signalling some direction – they are bearish and are widening. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the consolidation resistance. Trading opportunities may exist if the GBPUSD moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade).

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Building Permit figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. US Manufacturing and Unemployment data will be released at the same time.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 16.02.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD moved above the consolidation resistance and has since been bullish. Price action has formed a higher swing high and the moving averages are about to cross bullish, all suggesting that the NZDUSD could start up-trending. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7190 and around the bullish channel support area. Price could stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady, though recent unemployment data was much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand have kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Building Permit figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. US Manufacturing and Unemployment data will be released at the same time. New Zealand Retail Sales data will be released at 2145 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD - 16.02.2017

The USDCAD has failed to push higher and is returning to the bullish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that price could move below the bullish channel support area and move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages and around the identified diagonal resistance area.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar, so has positive employment data. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Building Permit figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. US Manufacturing and Unemployment data will be released at the same time.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF - 16.02.2017

As identified in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF reversed around the bullish channel resistance and has since been bearish. Price is nearing the channel support area but is looking very bearish. Buying opportunities may exist if the bullish channel support holds. If the USDCHF moves below the support area, price may move lower.

The US Federal Reserve increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swing Franc may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. A US Building Permit figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. US Manufacturing and Unemployment data will be released at the same time.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDPY - 16.02.2017

Price is up-trending but there are very few technical areas that could provide trading opportunities. Long opportunities could exist around the identified support areas.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. The US Federal Reserve recently increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. A US Building Permit figure will be announced at 1330 UTC today. US Manufacturing and Unemployment data will be released at the same time.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD - 16.02.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD continues to find support and resistance within the horizontal channel and continues to range. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current market indecision. Trading opportunities may exist around the range support and resistance and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If GOLD breaks to the upside, price could stall or reverse around the recent high around 1243.00.