Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 15, 2017


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD - 15.02.2017

Price continues to range within the horizontal channel at 0.7610-0.7695. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance and if the AUDUSD moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade). Long opportunities may exist around the identified diagonal support.

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. US CPI and Retails Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Testimony at 1500 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC. Australian Employment data will be announced at 0030 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 15.02.2017

The EURGBP is looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that price could move lower. From a technical view, there are very few areas that could provide trading opportunities during today’s trading sessions.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. UK Average Earnings and Employment data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD - 15.02.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the trend resistance area and has moved lower. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, signalling that the EURUSD could continue to be bearish. Price action is looking over-extended though, suggesting that it could be time for the EURUSD to be bullish and retrace some of the recent bearish move. Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. Price could find support and become bullish around the identified consolidation support area.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US CPI and Retails Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Testimony at 1500 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD - 15.02.2017

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are crossing frequently, are tight and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified support and resistance areas and around the moving averages.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. UK Average Earnings and Employment data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today. US CPI and Retails Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC. This is followed by a Fed Testimony at 1500 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 15.02.2017

The NZDUSD continues to be bearish but recent price action has formed a bearish consolidation pattern. The moving averages have become tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation support and resistance and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade).

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady, though recent unemployment data was much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand have kept rates at 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US CPI and Retails Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Testimony at 1500 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD - 15.02.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the bullish channel support area and has since been bullish. The moving averages are still bearish though, suggesting that the USDCAD may test the bullish channel support area again. Long opportunities could exist around the support area and if price moves above the moving averages.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar, so has positive employment data. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US CPI and Retails Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. Canadian Manufacturing Sales data will be announced at the same time. This is all followed by a Fed Testimony at 1500 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF - 15.02.2017

The USDCHF has found resistance around the bullish channel resistance area again (as identified in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish but are starting to tighten, signalling that price could make a move towards the bullish channel support area. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the bullish channel support area.

The US Federal Reserve increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swing Franc may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. US CPI and Retails Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Testimony at 1500 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY - 15.02.2017

Price has been bullish and has moved above the recent horizontal channel. The moving averages are bullish and are steady, suggesting that the USDJPY may continue to uptrend. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 114.00 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. The US Federal Reserve recently increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US CPI and Retails Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by a Fed Testimony at 1500 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD - 15.02.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD continues to move within the horizontal channel at 1222.00-1235.00 and find support and resistance. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, GOLD could reverse bearish around the swing high at 1242.50.