Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 03, 2017

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has continued to be bullish and has moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are still bullish and are widening, signalling that the AUDUSD could continue to uptrend. Price has been retracing and is currently coming-off the 38.2% Fib level. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bullish moving averages and around the previous horizontal channel resistance at 0.7600.

The Bank of Australia recently decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. Trump’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. US Non-Farm Payrolls, Averages Hourly Earnings and an Unemployment Rate figure are set to be released at 1330 UTC. This is followed by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data at 1500 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP continued to move within the identified horizontal channel and has reversed bearish around the horizontal channel resistance. Price action has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern as well as the horizontal channel at 0.8470-0.8630. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas and if the EURGBP moves out of the channel or consolidation (break-out trades). The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current market indecision.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. UK Services PMI data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The EURUSD continues to look choppy and indecisive but moving in a slight upwards direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels. If price moves below the horizontal support at 1.0735, the EURUSD may attempt a bearish move lower.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Farm Payrolls, Averages Hourly Earnings and an Unemployment Rate figure are set to be released at 1330 UTC. This is followed by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data at 1500 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has been retracing and been bearish. The moving averages are moving sideways, suggesting some market indecision. Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area. There is a possibility that price could range between the horizontal levels at 1.2510-1.2695.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists did believe that sterling would continue to weaken long-term but there now exists more optimism for the British pound. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. UK Services PMI data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today. US Non-Farm Payrolls, Averages Hourly Earnings and an Unemployment Rate figure are set to be released at 1330 UTC. This is followed by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data at 1500 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is consolidating and has formed a symmetrical triangle within a horizontal channel at 0.7230-0.7345. The moving averages confirm the lack of trend direction – they are tight and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation and horizontal channel support and resistance and if the NZDUSD moves out of the consolidation or horizontal channel (break-out trades).

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady, though recent unemployment data was much worse than expected. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand recently cut rates by 25 points, bringing their official rate to 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Farm Payrolls, Averages Hourly Earnings and an Unemployment Rate figure are set to be released at 1330 UTC. This is followed by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data at 1500 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD has been retracing. Price is nearing a resistance area and could soon reverse bearish. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support at 1.3090. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the USDCAD may attempt a move lower.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Farm Payrolls, Averages Hourly Earnings and an Unemployment Rate figure are set to be released at 1330 UTC. This is followed by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data at 1500 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price action has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern and is consolidating. The USDCHF continues to move within the longer-term bearish channel. The bearish moving averages are moving sideways and are tightening – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation support and resistance and if price moves out of the consolidation (break-out trade). If the USDCHF breaks to the upside, price could stall or reverse bearish around the horizontal resistance at 0.9960 and around the bearish channel resistance.

The US Federal Reserve increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. The Swing France may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. US Non-Farm Payrolls, Averages Hourly Earnings and an Unemployment Rate figure are set to be released at 1330 UTC. This is followed by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data at 1500 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the horizontal support at 112.25 and around the bearish channel support. The USDJPY continues to look choppy and slightly indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are crossing frequently and providing no clear direction. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance. Selling opportunities could also exist if price moves below the horizontal support at 112.25.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The Yen may see added strength if political uncertainty in the US continues. The US Federal Reserve recently increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, as further rate hikes are expected. US Non-Farm Payrolls, Averages Hourly Earnings and an Unemployment Rate figure are set to be released at 1330 UTC. This is followed by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data at 1500 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bullish and has moved higher. The moving averages are bullish, suggesting that price could continue to uptrend. Long opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1213.00.

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