Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 31, 2017


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD - 31.01.2017

Price is ranging within a horizontal channel at 0.7515-0.7575. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the upside, the AUDUSD may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7600.

The Bank of Australia have again decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. Trump’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. A US Consumer Confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 31.01.2017

The EURGBP continues to retrace and be bullish. Price has recently found resistance around the trend resistance area and near the 61.8% Fib level. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, suggesting that the EURGBP could continue it’s bullish run. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area and around the 61.8% Fib level. If price moves above these potential resistance areas, buying opportunities could exist as price moves above the trend resistance, around the bullish channel support area and around the bullish moving averages.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The UK Supreme Court has ruled that triggering article 50 and the Brexit negotiations will need to go through British parliament. There is an ECB Speech at 0800 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD - 31.10.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved below the horizontal support at 1.0660 and made a bearish move lower. The EURUSD quickly reversed bullish though. Price continues to look choppy and indecisive but recent price action does look slightly bearish – the EURUSD has formed a lower low and the moving averages are bearish and are steady. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. Price could stall or reverse bullish around the horizontal support at 1.0625.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. Trump’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. There is a ECB Speech at 0800 UTC today. This is followed by a US Consumer Confidence figure at 1500 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD - 31.01.2017

Price bounced off the 50.0% Fib level during yesterday’s trading sessions but continues to be bearish and retrace. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the bearish move may continue. Long opportunities could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels. Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The UK Supreme Court has ruled that triggering article 50 and the Brexit negotiations will need to go through British parliament. A US Consumer Confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 31.01.2017

The NZDUSD is moving within a horizontal channel at 0.7230-0.7300 and is ranging. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cut rates by 25 points, bring their official rate to 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. Trump’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. A US Consumer Confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today. New Zealand Employment data is set to be released at 2145 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD - 31.01.2017

Price is lacking clear direction and is looking a little indecisive. The moving averages have crossed frequently – confirming the current lack of market direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified support and resistance areas and around the moving averages.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon though. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. Trump’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. A US Consumer Confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today. Canadian GBP data will be announced at 1330 UTC. This is followed by a Bank of Canada speech at 2235 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF - 31.01.2017

The USDCHF continues to look choppy but is moving in a general downwards direction. The moving averages have been very indecisive but have recently crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that price may attempt a move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal support at 0.9960, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.

The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. Trump’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. A US Consumer Confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY - 31.01.2017

Price continues to look choppy and is ranging within a horizontal channel at 112.55-115.50. The moving averages are crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if the USDJPY moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade).

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. Trump’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. A US Consumer Confidence figure will be released at 1500 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD - 31.01.2017

GOLD continues to retrace and be bullish. The moving averages are bearish but are tightening – confirming the strength of the recent bullish move. Selling opportunities could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels. Price is looking a little indecisive. There is a chance that GOLD may range between the horizontal levels at 1180.60-1218.40.