Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 25, 2017
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has struggled to move higher and has reversed bearish around the horizontal resistance at 0.7600. The AUDUSD could now retrace and move lower or range within the potential horizontal channel at 0.7525-0.7600. The moving averages currently confirm this – they are moving sideways and are tight. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages.
The Bank of Australia have again decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. Trump’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP reversed bearish around the longer-term moving average and has moved lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous swing low at 0.8580, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area.
The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The UK Supreme Court has ruled that triggering article 50 and the Brexit negotiations will need to go through British parliament. German Business Climate data is set to be released at 0900 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been moving sideways and has formed a potential horizontal channel at 1.0715-1.0775. The bullish moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, signalling that buying momentum could be weakening. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the moving averages.
The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. Trump’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. German Business Climate data is set to be released at 0900 UTC today. US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1530 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD found support around the trend support line and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that price may attempt a swing higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area, around the horizontal support at 1.2410 and if price moves above the horizontal resistance at 1.2535.
The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. The UK Supreme Court has ruled that triggering article 50 and the Brexit negotiations will need to go through British parliament. US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price found support around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7215 and was able to swing higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD is currently finding support around the shorter-term moving average. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that price could move higher. Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the horizontal support at 0.7215 and around the trend support area.
New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cut rates by 25 points, bring their official rate to 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. Trump’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1530 UTC today. New Zealand CPI data will be announced at 2145 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD is lacking clear direction and is looking a little indecisive. The moving averages have crossed frequently – confirming the current lack of market direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels and around the moving averages.
Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon though. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. Trump’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to retrace and be bullish. The moving averages are bearish and are steady, suggesting that the down-trend could continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the previous horizontal support at 1.0040 and around the trend resistance area.
The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. Trump’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price continues to look choppy and is ranging within a horizontal channel at 112.55-115.50. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are crossing frequently and providing no clear direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance area and if the USDJPY moves out of the horizontal channel (break-out trade).
The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. Trump’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1530 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD reversed bearish around the horizontal resistance at 1218.25 and has been bearish. Price continues to move within a horizontal channel at 1196.20-1218.25. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are moving sideways and crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
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