Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 20, 2017


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD - 20.01.2017

The AUDUSD has been bullish and has moved higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Price continues to look a little over-extended though, suggesting that a bearish move could be due and that the AUDUSD could retrace lower. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7565, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.7500 & 0.7510. The AUDUSD could stall or reverse around the upwards channel resistance area.

The Bank of Australia have again decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. President-Elect Trump is due to speak again during today’s trading sessions.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 20.01.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was rejected around the 50 SMA and has been bearish. The EURGBP has been quick to retrace after forming a lower swing low and the bearish moving averages are tightening, both suggesting that selling momentum is weakening. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8700 & 0.8710. If price moves above these levels, the EURGBP may attempt a bullish move towards the recent high at 0.8630.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. UK Retail Sales data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD - 20.01.2017

Price action is forming a potential horizontal channel. The EURUSD is looking indecisive and moving within the channel. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the channel support and resistance at 1.0590 & 1.0715 and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. President-Elect Trump is due to speak again during today’s trading sessions.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD - 20.01.2017

The GBPUSD continues to look choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and providing no reliable direction. The GBPUSD could reverse bearish around the horizontal resistance at 1.2420.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. President-Elect Trump is due to speak again during today’s trading sessions. UK Retail Sales data is set to be released at 0930 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 20.01.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has struggled to move above the recent swing high and is currently bearish. The moving averages confirm the potential shirt in momentum – they are tightening and moving sideways. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the identified trend support area and around the horizontal support at 0.7120.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cut rates by 25 points, bring their official rate to 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. President-Elect Trump is due to speak again during today’s trading sessions.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD - 20.01.2017

The USDCAD moved above the horizontal resistance at 1.3270 and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a clear higher swing high and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all suggesting that the USDCAD could continue to uptrend. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3270 and around the bullish moving averages.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon though. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. President-Elect Trump is due to speak again during today’s trading sessions. Canadian CPI and Retail Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF - 20.01.2017

The downtrend seems to be continuing on the USDCHF but the recent retracement was strong and almost formed a higher swing high. The bearish moving averages are also tightening and moving sideways – confirming the potential shift in price direction. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages but the USDCHF looks like it could potentially range between 1.0000 and 1.0120. Trading opportunities could exist around these areas. Buying opportunities could exist if the USDCHF moves above the resistance levels at 1.0120.

The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. President-Elect Trump is due to speak again during today’s trading sessions.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY - 20.01.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed bearish around the horizontal resistance at 115.30. The USDJPY has formed a higher swing high and the moving averages have crossed bullish, both suggesting that price may attempt to uptrend. Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal resistance at 114.30 and if price moves above the recent swing high at 115.50.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. President-Elect Trump is due to speak again during today’s trading sessions.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD - 20.01.2017

GOLD is reversing bearish around the previous trend support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, suggesting that price could move lower. Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the previous trend support area and if GOLD moves below the horizontal support at 1196.35. There is a possibility that price may range within a potential horizontal channel at 1196.35-1217.00.