Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 19, 2017


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD - 19.01.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has retraced but has found support around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7500. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the AUDUSD may attempt a move higher. Price action is looking a little over-extended though, signalling that the AUDUSD may be due a bearish move. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal support at 0.7500. Price may stall or reverse bearish around the previous swing high and horizontal resistance at 0.7565.

The Bank of Australia have again decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. There are concerns over how a Trump led US could negatively impact the Australian economy. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. US Building Permits and Unemployment data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1600 UTC and a Feb Speech at 0100 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 19.01.2017

The EURGBP has reversed bearish around the previous horizontal support at 0.8710 and is currently attempting a swing lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the horizontal resistance at 0.8705 and if price moves below the previous swing low at 0.8620. The EURGBP could stall or reverse bullish around the previous swing low.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. A ECB Rate Announcement is set for 1245 UTC. This is followed by a Press Conference at 1330 UTC. Both of these events are likely to cause volatility to EUR currency pairs.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD - 19.01.2017

Price has been bearish and continues to retrace. The EURUSD has moved below some clear horizontal support levels and below the moving averages, signalling that buying momentum could be weakening. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways and no longer widening. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous swing high at 1.0715.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Some economists are expecting a 1.0000 parity between the Euro and US Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. A ECB Rate Announcement is set for 1245 UTC. This is followed by a Press Conference at 1330 UTC. Both of these events are likely to cause volatility to EUR currency pairs. US Building Permits and Unemployment data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1600 UTC and a Feb Speech at 0100 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD - 19.01.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has found support around the 38.2% Fib level and is currently bullish. Price is looking a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and providing no reliable direction. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the moving averages. The GBPUSD could reverse bearish around the horizontal resistance at 1.2420.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. British Prime Minister Theresa May has provided Brexit negotiation details and announced what deal the UK government would like as they leave the EU. This has given strength to the GBP. US Building Permits and Unemployment data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1600 UTC and a Feb Speech at 0100 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 19.01.2017

Price has been bearish and continues to retrace. The NZDUSD has moved below some clear horizontal support levels and below the moving averages, signalling that buying momentum could be weakening. The moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous swing high at 0.7215.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cut rates by 25 points, bring their official rate to 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. US Building Permits and Unemployment data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1600 UTC and a Feb Speech at 0100 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD - 19.01.2017

The USDCAD has been very bullish and has moved higher. Price action is forming a higher high and the moving averages are about to cross bullish, both suggesting that the USDCAD could attempt to uptrend. Buying opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal support levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and if price moves above the horizontal resistance at 1.3270.

Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon though. The appreciation of OIL has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. US Building Permits and Unemployment data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1600 UTC and a Feb Speech at 0100 UTC. Canadian Manufacturing Sales data is set to be released at 1330 UTC. The Crude Oil Inventories announcement could also impact CAD currency pairs.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF - 19.01.2017

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found resistance around the longer-term moving average and the previous horizontal support at 1.0070 and is slightly bearish. The USDCHF is clearly down-trending and the moving averages are bearish, both suggesting that price may attempt a move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the identified horizontal resistance levels.

The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. US Building Permits and Unemployment data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1600 UTC and a Feb Speech at 0100 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY - 19.01.2017

The USDJPY has been bullish and has moved higher. The downtrend high and lows have held and the moving averages and still bearish, suggesting that the recent bullish move could be a strong retracement rather than a trend reversal. Selling opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal resistance at 115.30.

The Bank of Japan have kept interest rates at a low of -0.10%. The US Federal Reserve have increased interest rates to 0.75%. The US Dollar could continue to strengthen long-term, if further rate hikes are expected. The President Elect’s latest speech provided no fiscal or economic stimulus details, causing the US Dollar to weaken. US Building Permits and Unemployment data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1600 UTC and a Feb Speech at 0100 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD - 19.01.2017

GOLD has been bearish and has moved below a clear horizontal support area and trend support line. The moving averages are moving sideways and tightening, suggesting that price could continue to be bearish and retrace. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, identified horizontal levels and around the previous trend support (as resistance).