Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 01, 2016

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD moved below the horizontal channel support (range break-out) and has since been very bearish. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, suggesting that price could move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous swing low at 0.7440, around the previous bullish channel support and if price closes below the horizontal support at 0.7380.

The Bank of Australia have again decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Presidential Election result may be a game-changer for the Australian Dollar though. Fears over how a Trump led US will negatively impact the Australian economy are already showing. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This will be followed by a US Manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC. Australian Retail Sales data is set to be released at 0030 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed bearish around the horizontal resistance at 0.8565 (as identified in yesterday’s chart analysis) and has since been moving lower. The moving averages are still moving sideways and crossing frequently, though they are currently bearish. Selling opportunities could exist if price moves below the horizontal support area at 0.8455. Selling opportunities could also exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 0.8565.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. UK Court law has put a current hold on triggering Article 50. The British government will now have to go through UK parliament to trigger Article 50. This has given strength to the GBP, as Brexit may now not be such a “hard” Brexit and there is the slightest chance that Article 50 may now never be triggered. UK Manufacturing data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has found support around the trend support area and is currently bullish. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, suggesting that price still has no clear direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities could exist around the diagonal support area.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause strength in the USD. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This will be followed by a US Manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price action continues to be choppy and indecisive. Price has moved above the highs of the consolidation area, suggesting that price could start moving higher. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and are widening. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.2525, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the identified trend support area.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. UK Court law has put a current hold on triggering Article 50. The British government will now have to go through UK parliament to trigger Article 50. This has given strength to the GBP, as Brexit may now not be such a “hard” Brexit and there is the slightest chance that Article 50 may now never be triggered. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. UK Manufacturing data is set to be released at 0930 UTC today. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC. This will be followed by a US Manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has found support around the longer-term moving average and is currently bullish. The moving averages are still bullish and are steady, suggesting that price could attempt a swing higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cut rates by 25 points, bring their official rate to 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This will be followed by a US Manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC. The Australian news at 0030 UTC may also cause some volatility for NZD Forex pairs.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was rejected around the longer-term moving average and has since been bearish. The moving averages are now signalling some market direction – they are bearish and heading down. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.3445. A selling opportunity could also exist if price moves below the previous swing low at 1.3365.

US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US could provide some strength in the USD. Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon though. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This will be followed by a US Manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has reversed bearish around the horizontal channel resistance (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to range and move within the channel. The moving averages confirm the lack of direction – they are moving sideways and are tight. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Price action has formed a bullish channel within the range. Buying opportunities could exist around the channel support and the moving averages.

US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD and possible strength to the CHF (safe-haven currency). US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This will be followed by a US Manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the range resistance during yesterday’s trading sessions and attempted a move higher. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, suggesting that price could continue to uptrend. Buying opportunities could exist around the previous channel resistance at 113.75, around the bullish moving averages and around the trend support area.

The Bank of Japan have announced a slight hike in their rate, from -0.20% to -0.10%. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD and possible strength to the JPY (safe-haven currency). US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This will be followed by a US Manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD found resistance around the trend resistance area and has moved lower. The moving averages have crossed bearish again and are widening, suggesting that price could continue to be bearish. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous horizontal channel support at 1180.80, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance area. GOLD is looking a little over-extended now and could be due a bullish retracement sometime soon.

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