Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 30, 2016

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is moving within a horizontal channel (ranging) at 0.7440-0.7495. The moving averages are bullish and price is still within the bullish channel, both suggesting that the AUDUSD could move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and as price moves above the range resistance. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas.

The Bank of Australia have again decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Presidential Election result may be a game-changer for the Australian Dollar though. Fears over how a Trump led US will negatively impact the Australian economy are already showing. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. US Non-Farm Employment Change data is set to be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP reversed around the previous swing low and has been bullish. Price is now ranging (price action has formed a horizontal channel). The moving averages confirm the lack of price direction – they are tight and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. UK Court law has put a current hold on triggering Article 50. The British government will now have to go through UK parliament to trigger Article 50. This has given strength to the GBP, as Brexit may now not be such a “hard” Brexit and there is the slightest chance that Article 50 may now never be triggered. There is an ECB Speech at 1230 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and attempted a move higher. The current horizontal resistance is holding and the EURUSD is still ranging but recent price action is looking bullish. The moving averages are also bullish but are beginning to tighten and move sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and if price moves above the horizontal resistance at 1.0660.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause strength in the USD. US Non-Farm Employment Change data is set to be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC. There is an ECB Speech at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and crossing frequently. Price reversed around the horizontal resistance at 1.2520 and has been bearish (as identified in yesterday’s chart analysis). Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal support and resistance levels on the above chart.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. UK Court law has put a current hold on triggering Article 50. The British government will now have to go through UK parliament to trigger Article 50. This has given strength to the GBP, as Brexit may now not be such a “hard” Brexit and there is the slightest chance that Article 50 may now never be triggered. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. US Non-Farm Employment Change data is set to be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the shorter-term moving average and the trend support and has been bullish. The moving averages are still bullish and are widening, signalling that price could move higher. If price pulls-back before moving higher, buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance (now support) at 0.7100.

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cut rates by 25 points, bring their official rate to 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. US Non-Farm Employment Change data is set to be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD reversed bearish around the longer-term moving average and the previous horizontal support. Price action continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are crossing frequently and providing no clear direction. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the identified horizontal support and resistance levels and around the channel support and resistance areas. If price moves below the channel support area, price could attempt a bearish move and may start down-trending.

US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US could provide some strength in the USD. Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon though. US Non-Farm Employment Change data is set to be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC. A Canadian GDP figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price is ranging and moving between a horizontal channel support and resistance. The moving averages confirm the lack of direction – they are moving sideways and are tight. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD and possible strength to the CHF (safe-haven currency). US Non-Farm Employment Change data is set to be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY is moving within a horizontal channel (ranging) at 111.60-113.80. The moving averages confirm the lack of market direction – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Price action has also formed a bullish channel. Buying opportunities could exist around the channel support area and if price moves above the channel resistance.

The Bank of Japan have announced a slight hike in their rate, from -0.20% to -0.10%. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD and possible strength to the JPY (safe-haven currency). US Non-Farm Employment Change data is set to be released at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD is ranging and moving within a clear horizontal channel. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Price is around the longer-term trend resistance. Selling opportunities could exist around the area.

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