Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 29, 2016
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bullish and is up-trending. Price was recently rejected around the shorter-term moving average. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that price could still move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the identified horizontal support levels, around the trend support area and if price moves above the horizontal resistance at 0.7495.
The Bank of Australia have again decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Presidential Election result may be a game-changer for the Australian Dollar though. Fears over how a Trump led US will negatively impact the Australian economy are already showing. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A US Prelim GDP figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC. This will be followed by US Consumer Confidence data at 1500 UTC.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
Price continued to retrace during yesterday’s trading sessions, signalling a current lack of selling momentum (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, suggesting that the EURGBP could move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages and as price moves above the identified horizontal resistance levels. The EURGBP could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels and may attempt a bearish move.
The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. UK Court law has put a current hold on triggering Article 50. The British government will now have to go through UK parliament to trigger Article 50. This has given strength to the GBP, as Brexit may now not be such a “hard” Brexit and there is the slightest chance that Article 50 may now never be triggered. There is no major scheduled news that will directly impact this pair during today’s trading sessions.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The EURUSD has formed a horizontal channel and price is moving between the channel support and resistance (ranging). The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, recent price action has also been bullish – all suggesting that price could move to the upside of the channel and possibly trend higher. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause strength in the USD. A US Prelim GDP figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC. This will be followed by US Consumer Confidence data at 1500 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price action continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the several horizontal support levels identified on the above chart.
The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. UK Court law has put a current hold on triggering Article 50. The British government will now have to go through UK parliament to trigger Article 50. This has given strength to the GBP, as Brexit may now not be such a “hard” Brexit and there is the slightest chance that Article 50 may now never be triggered. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. A US Prelim GDP figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC. This will be followed by US Consumer Confidence data at 1500 UTC.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD found support around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7050 and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that price could move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area, around the identified horizontal support at 0.7050 and if price moves above the horizontal resistance at 0.7095.
New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cut rates by 25 points, bring their official rate to 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. A US Prelim GDP figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC. This will be followed by US Consumer Confidence data at 1500 UTC.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are crossing frequently and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the identified horizontal support and resistance levels and around the channel support and resistance areas. If price moves below the channel support area, price could attempt a bearish move and may start down-trending.
US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US could provide some strength in the USD. Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon though. A US Prelim GDP figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC. This will be followed by US Consumer Confidence data at 1500 UTC.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price is ranging and moving between a horizontal channel support and resistance. The moving averages confirm the lack of direction – they are moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).
US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD and possible strength to the CHF (safe-haven currency). A US Prelim GDP figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC. This will be followed by US Consumer Confidence data at 1500 UTC.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has become slightly indecisive and has formed a tightening consolidation pattern. The moving averages confirm the lack of market direction – they are moving sideways. Selling opportunities could exist around the consolidation resistance, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and if price moves below the consolidation support at 111.60. Buying opportunities could exist if price moves above the moving averages. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the previous swing high at 113.75.
The Bank of Japan have announced a slight hike in their rate, from -0.20% to -0.10%. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD and possible strength to the JPY (safe-haven currency). A US Prelim GDP figure is set to be released at 1330 UTC. This will be followed by US Consumer Confidence data at 1500 UTC.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD found resistance around the 50.0% Fib level and the longer-term moving average and has moved slightly lower. Price has not made any significant bearish move though and the bearish moving averages are tightening, suggesting that GOLD may attempt to retrace further. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area and the 61.8% Fib level. If price moves above these resistance areas, GOLD may rally and move higher. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1220.00.
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