Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – November 23, 2016

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD continues to retrace. The moving averages are tightening and could cross bullish, suggesting that price could still retrace further. Selling opportunities could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the identified horizontal resistance levels. If price does attempt a bearish move, price could reverse around the moving averages and around the identified diagonal support area.

The Bank of Australia have again decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50%.The Australian Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Presidential Election result may be a game-changer for the Australian Dollar though. Fears over how a Trump led US will negatively impact the Australian economy are already showing. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. US Unemployment and Durable Goods data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC and a FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 1900 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has been retracing a good portion of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that price could move lower. Price is above the moving averages though, suggesting that price could move higher, creating some indecision. The EURGBP could possibly continue to move within the horizontal channel (range) at 0.8495-0.8630. Trading opportunities could exist around the range support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. UK Court law has put a current hold on triggering Article 50. The British government will now have to go through UK parliament to trigger Article 50. This has given strength to the GBP, as Brexit may now not be such a “hard” Brexit and there is the slightest chance that Article 50 may now never be triggered. UK Government is set to release is Autumn Forecast at 1230 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The EURUSD continues to lack selling momentum (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) and is currently bullish. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.0570-1.0650, price could range within this channel. The moving averages confirm the lack of direction – they are very tight and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause strength in the USD. US Unemployment and Durable Goods data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC and a FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 1900 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to look choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and crossing frequently. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal support and resistance levels and around the moving averages.

The British Prime Minister has announced that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March 2017. This has caused a sterling sell-off as the 2 year of negotiations for leaving the EU nears. Most economists believe that sterling will continue to weaken long-term. UK Court law has put a current hold on triggering Article 50. The British government will now have to go through UK parliament to trigger Article 50. This has given strength to the GBP, as Brexit may now not be such a “hard” Brexit and there is the slightest chance that Article 50 may now never be triggered. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. UK Government is set to release their Autumn Forecast at 1230 UTC today. US Unemployment and Durable Goods data is set to be released at 1330 UTC. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC and a FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 1900 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Just like a lot of markets, the NZDUSD is ranging within a horizontal channel, 0.7035-0.7080. The moving averages have crossed bullish though and are widening, suggesting that price could move to the upside. Trading opportunities could exist around the channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

New Zealand’s economy continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have cut rates by 25 points, bring their official rate to 1.75%. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. US Unemployment and Durable Goods data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC and a FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 1900 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they are crossing frequently and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal support and resistance levels.

US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US could provide some strength in the USD. Recent Canadian economic figures have been mixed. The most recent Rate announcement and BOC press conference did not provide any suggestion that there will be a rate hike any time soon though. US Unemployment and Durable Goods data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC and a FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 1900 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF is moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the lack of price direction – they are tight and moving sideways also. Trading opportunities could exist around the channel support and resistance areas (1.0065-1.0130) and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the USDCHF could start a large bearish retracement.

US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD and possible strength to the CHF (safe-haven currency). US Unemployment and Durable Goods data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC and a FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 1900 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to range within a horizontal channel, 110.45-111.30. The moving averages confirm the lack of market direction – they are tightening and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the channel support and resistance areas and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). If price breaks to the downside, the USDJPY could start a large bearish retracement. There is also a short-term trend support line (identified on the above chart), this could provide a buying opportunity and an early upside break-out trade.

The Bank of Japan have announced a slight hike in their rate, from -0.20% to -0.10%. US Fed Chair Yellen recently suggested that there could be a US rate hike before the end of this year. Most economists believe that a US rate hike could happen in December. A Trump led US may cause weakness in the USD and possible strength to the JPY (safe-haven currency). US Unemployment and Durable Goods data is set to be released at 1330 UTC today. This is followed by US Crude Oil Inventories at 1530 UTC and a FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 1900 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD found resistance around the longer-term moving average and was slightly bearish during yesterday’s trading sessions. Price is looking indecisive though. The moving averages confirm this – they are crossing frequently and moving sideways. Trading opportunities could exist around the identified support and resistance areas.

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