Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 22, 2016

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD was bearish during Friday’s trading sessions. The moving averages are bearish and are widening – suggesting that the downside move could continue – but price is currently finding support around the trend support area identified in Friday’s chart analysis. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance areas.

The Bank of Australia have decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50% – this as well as other poor economic data has contributed to some weakness in the Australian Dollar. As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price was bullish during Friday’s trading sessions and closed above the trend resistance area. Price has formed a clear higher high and may now attempt a move to the recent swing high of 0.8715. The moving averages continue to be bearish though and are showing little sign of weakening. Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the newly formed trend support area and around the previous trend resistance as support.

Very strong UK CPI data has cleared some doubt about the future of the British economy. Though leaving the EU looms, the GBP has been gaining back some ground but most experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken long-term. The future of the Euro is very unclear at this point. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price was bearish during Friday’s trading sessions and has moved below both moving averages and the 23.6% Fib level. The bullish moving averages are beginning to tighten and look more bearish, suggesting that the bearish move could continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the 38.2%, 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar.  There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD was bearish during Friday’s trading sessions but price stalled and found support around the 50.0% Fib level. Price has formed a higher swing high and is currently retracing. The moving averages are bullish but are beginning to tighten, suggesting that the retracement could continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels.

The Bank of England have cut rates as expected and have also increased their QE program. This initially caused weakness for the GBP. Very strong UK CPI data has cleared some doubt about the future of the British economy but most experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken long-term. Though leaving the EU looms, the GBP has been gaining back ground but most experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken long-term. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price was bearish during Friday’s trading sessions and moved below the diagonal support area of the bullish price pattern. The bullish moving averages are tightening and could cross bearish during today’s trading sessions, suggesting that the downwards direction could continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous diagonal support area (now resistance), around the trend resistance area and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

Positive US Employment related data has given strength to the US Dollar. The economy of New Zealand continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the official rate to 2.00%. The NZD gained strength and continues to seem steady even with this potential weakening rate news. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD was bullish during Friday’s trading sessions and moved above both moving averages. The bearish moving averages are tightening and could cross bullish in today’s trading sessions, suggesting that the upside move could continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and as/if price forms a 2nd shoulder of the inverted head and shoulder pattern. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the identified Fib levels. Selling opportunities could also exist around the Fib levels.

With a recent mix of positive and negative US economic data and with no clear direction on when the next US rate increase will be, the USD continues to be uncertain. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF was bullish during Friday’s trading sessions and moved above both moving averages. The bearish moving averages are beginning to tighten, suggesting that the upside move could continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and as/if price forms a 2nd shoulder of the inverted head and shoulder pattern. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the identified Fib levels. Selling opportunities could also exist around the Fib levels.

With a recent mix of positive and negative US economic data and with no clear direction on when the next US rate increase will be, the USD continues to be indecisive and a bit uncertain. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price opened above the tightening consolidation pattern and is moving higher. The bearish moving averages are tightening and could cross bullish during today’s trading sessions, suggesting that price could continue to move higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the bullish moving averages, around the previous horizontal resistance (now support) at 100.45 and around the trend support area.

With a recent mix of positive and negative US economic data and with no clear direction on when the next US rate increase will be, the USD continues to be indecisive and a bit uncertain. The recent Japanese Monetary Policy Statement and announcement from the BOJ has provided some strength to the Yen – most experts were expecting a greater stimulus package. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD moved below the consolidation support area (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis) and moved much lower during Friday’s trading sessions. The moving averages are crossing bearish and price has closed below some clear support levels – suggesting that the bearish move could continue. The bearish move may stall or temporarily reverse around the horizontal support at 1331 though. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and if price moves below the horizontal support at 1331.

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