Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 17, 2016


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD - 17.08.2016

Price has formed a tightening triangular consolidation pattern and is moving between the consolidation support and consolidation resistance. The moving averages are providing little direction and are crossing frequently – confirming that the consolidation is taking place. Trading opportunities could exist as price comes off the support and resistance areas and if price breaks-out of the consolidation.

The Bank of Australia have decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50% – this as well as other poor economic data has contributed to some weakness in the Australian Dollar. As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. US Crude Oil Inventories data is set to be released at 1430 UTC today. US FOMC Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 1800 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 17.08.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP was looking a little over-extended and was bearish during yesterday’s trading sessions. Price has moved and closed below the trend support area and below the shorter-term moving average. Price has now found support around the longer-term moving average and the 23.6% Fib level. Short-term selling opportunities could exist as price retraces. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the longer-term moving average and around any of the key Fib levels.

As expected, the Bank of England have cut rates and have also increased their QE program. This has provided weakness for the GBP. Most experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken long-term. The future of the Euro is very unclear at this point. UK Averages Earnings and Claimant Count data is set to be released at 0830 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD - 17.08.2016

The EURUSD found support around the consolidation/trend support area and moved higher during yesterday’s trading sessions (as identified in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that the upwards move could continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support area.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar.  US Crude Oil Inventories data is set to be released at 1430 UTC today. US FOMC Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 1800 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD - 17.08.2016

The GBPUSD was very bullish during yesterday’s trading sessions. Price has moved and closed above the trend resistance area and both moving averages, suggesting that bulls now are taking the lead in the market. The moving averages could cross bullish today, suggesting that the upwards move could continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous trend resistance area (now support). A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.3085.

The Bank of England have cut rates as expected and have also increased their QE program. This has provided weakness for the GBP. Most experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken long-term, though recent very positive PPI CPI data has provided greater hope for the future of sterling. UK Averages Earnings and Claimant Count data is set to be released at 0830 UTC today. US Crude Oil Inventories data is set to be released at 1430 UTC. US FOMC Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 1800 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 17.08.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the consolidation resistance and rallied much higher during yesterday’s trading sessions. The moving averages have crossed bullish, suggesting that the upwards direction could continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and if price moves above the horizontal resistance at 0.7300. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance area.

Positive US Employment related data has given strength to the US Dollar. The economy of New Zealand continues to seem steady. As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have lowered the official rate to 2.00%. The NZD gained strength and continues to seem steady even with this potential weakening rate news. US Crude Oil Inventories data is set to be released at 1430 UTC. US FOMC Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 1800 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD - 17.08.2016

Price found resistance around the trend resistance area and was bearish during yesterday’s trading sessions. The moving averages continue to be bearish and are showing little sign of weakening, suggesting that the downwards move could continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages and around the trend resistance area.

The Canadian Dollar continues to be weak as poor Canadian economic data is released. With a recent mix of positive and negative US economic data and with no clear direction on when the next US rate increase will be, the USD continues to be indecisive and a bit uncertain. US Crude Oil Inventories data is set to be released at 1430 UTC. US FOMC Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 1800 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

.USDCHF - 17.08.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF moved below the consolidation support area and was very bearish during yesterday’s trading sessions. The longer-term down trend has now continued and price has formed a clear swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that price could continue to move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

With a recent mix of positive and negative US economic data and with no clear direction on when the next US rate increase will be, the USD continues to be indecisive and a bit uncertain. US Crude Oil Inventories data is set to be released at 1430 UTC. US FOMC Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 1800 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY - 17.08.2016

The USDJPY was bullish during yesterday’s trading sessions and is currently testing the longer-term moving average and the previous range and consolidation support area. The moving averages are bearish and the overall trend is down, suggesting that price could yet move lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous range and consolidation support (now resistance) and around the dynamic resistance of the longer-term moving average.

With a recent mix of positive and negative US economic data and with no clear direction on when the next US rate increase will be, the USD continues to be indecisive and a bit uncertain. The recent Japanese Monetary Policy Statement and announcement from the BOJ has provided some strength to the Yen – most experts were expecting a greater stimulus package. US Crude Oil Inventories data is set to be released at 1430 UTC. US FOMC Meeting Minutes are set to be released at 1800 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD - 17.08.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis (and for several days now), GOLD in consolidating and moving between a clear consolidation support and consolidation resistance. Trading opportunities could exist around the consolidation support and resistance and if price moves out of the consolidation.