Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Chart – August 04, 2016


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD 04.08.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD found support around the shorter-term moving average and has moved higher. Price continues to move within the bullish channel though and could also be consolidating within a tightening upwards triangle pattern. The moving averages continue to be bullish and are widening, suggesting that price could reach the channel/consolidation resistance in today’s trading sessions. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the potential consolidation support area.

The Bank of Australia have decided to hold rates at the low of 1.50% – this as well as other poor economic data has contributed to some weakness in the Australian Dollar. As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 04.08.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP closed below the trend support area and has since moved lower. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, suggesting that the bearish move could continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous trend support area (now resistance).

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. The Bank of England are set to lower interest rates today and the announcement will take place at 1100 UTC. The Bank of England governor will speak after the announcement at 1130 UTC. .

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD 04.08.2016

As mentioned in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD was looking a little over-extended and moved lower in yesterday’s trading sessions. Price is now retracing some of the recent bullish move. Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. The EURUSD has been rallying since the Fed announcement and may now have some clear price direction. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD - 04.08.2016

Price was initially bearish in yesterday’s trading sessions but the bearish move was rejected and reversed bullish around the previous consolidation resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is now moving sideways between 1.3300 and 1.3355 but is back at the consolidation resistance (now support) and at the shorter-term moving average. Buying opportunities could exist around the current area of support but be aware of the GBP related news in today’s trading sessions (see below).

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. The Bank of England are set to lower interest rates today and the announcement will take place at 1100 UTC. The Bank of England governor will speak after the announcement at 1130 UTC. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1230 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 04.08.2016

Price action is looking a little indecisive on the NZDUSD chart. A potential head and shoulder pattern is forming and the bullish moving averages are tightening and cross bearish in today’s trading sessions – all suggesting that price could soon be bearish. Selling opportunities could exist if price forms the 2nd shoulder of the potential head and shoulder pattern and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

The Fed recently didn’t change US bank rates but kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. The economy of New Zealand continues to seem steady. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD - 04.08.2016

The USDCAD is starting to look indecisive and price could be forming a tightening consolidation pattern. The moving averages are extremely tight and are crossing regularly, confirming that the USDCAD is indecisive and lacking direction. Buying or selling opportunities could exist if price moves out of the consolidation in today’s trading sessions.

The Fed recently didn’t change US rates but kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF - 04.08.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF was looking a little over-extended and was bullish in yesterday’s trading sessions. The USDCHF is now retracing some of the recent bearish move. The bearish moving averages are tightening and could cross bullish in today’s trading sessions, suggesting that price could retrace further. Selling opportunities could exist around the key Fib levels of 38.2%, 50.0% and 61.8%.

The Fed recently didn’t change US rates but kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY - 04.08.2016

Overall, the USDJPY is looking very bearish but price could be bullish in coming trading sessions as price attempts a move to the trend resistance area. The moving averages are still very bearish but they are tightening, providing some support that price could be move higher.

The Fed recently didn’t change US rates but kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. The recent Japanese Monetary Policy Statement and announcement from the BOJ has provided some strength to the Yen – most experts were expecting a greater stimulus package. US Unemployment Claims data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD 04.08.2016

GOLD was bearish in yesterday’s trading sessions and is currently around the dynamic support area of the longer-term moving average. The moving averages are very bullish despite the recent bearish move, suggesting that price could move higher. From a technical view, there are very few technical levels that provide potential buying and selling opportunities.