Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 02, 2016


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD - 02.08.2016

The AUDUSD was very bearish during yesterday’s trading sessions. Price has been initially bullish this morning and is finding support at a potential channel support area. The moving averages continue to be bullish and are widening, suggesting that price may attempt a bullish move towards the upwards channel resistance in today’s trading sessions. If price is bearish and moves below the channel support area, there could be selling opportunities around the previous channel support area. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.7495.

Negative Australian economic data was released overnight (UTC) and bank rates were held at the low of 1.50%. This is just another set of negative economic indicators from a recent series of negative economic news. As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 02.08.2016

As mentioned in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved and closed above the consolidation pattern in yesterday’s trading sessions and has since been bullish. Price has now formed another tightening consolidation pattern and is currently testing the consolidation resistance area. If price moves and closes above the consolidation area in today’s trading sessions, price could become very bullish. Buying opportunities could exist around the consolidation resistance, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the diagonal support line (identified on the above chart).

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. The future of the Euro is very unclear. UK Construction PMI data is set to be released at 0830 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD - 02.08.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been looking over-extended and consequently struggled to move higher in yesterday’s trading sessions. Price is now moving within a 25 pip range (1.1155-1.1180). The moving averages are still very bullish, suggesting that price could move higher in today’s trading sessions. Price is also not looking as over-extended and could attempt a move higher. Buying opportunities could exist if price closes to the upside of the range and short-term selling opportunities could exist if price breaks to the downside of the range. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. The EURUSD has been rallying since the Fed announcement and may now have some clear price direction. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD - 02.08.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was bearish off the consolidation resistance area in yesterday’s trading sessions but price continues to move within the consolidation pattern. From a technical view, it’s a matter of waiting for a move out of the consolidation. If price moves above the consolidation resistance at 1.3285, there could be buying opportunities. If price moves below the consolidation support at 1.3075, there could be selling opportunities.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50%. UK Construction PMI data is set to be released at 0830 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD 02.08.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price pulled back in yesterday’s trading sessions and has found support at the shorter-term moving average. The moving averages continue to be bullish and price continues to form clear swing highs and swing lows, both suggesting that the upside move may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support line.

The Fed recently didn’t change US rates but kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. New Zealand inflation data was released overnight (UTC), things continue to seem steady with the Kiwi economy. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD 02.08.2016

Price is currently finding resistance around the trend resistance area. The bearish moving averages continue to widen, suggesting that price could move lower in today’s trading sessions. If price moves and closes above the diagonal resistance area, price could rally and attempt a swing higher. If price is bearish in today’s trading sessions, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 1.3025.

The Fed recently didn’t change US rates but kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF 02.08.2016

The USDCHF continues to look a little over-extended and could be due a bullish move. The moving averages are very bearish though and suggest that price could still yet move lower. If price is bullish in today’s trading sessions and starts a retracement of the recent bearish move, price could stall or reverse around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the key Fib levels.

The Fed recently didn’t change US rates but kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY 02.08.2016

The USDJPY has found resistance around the dynamic resistance of the shorter-term moving average but is currently moving and closing within a tight 40 pip range (102.20-102.60). If price breaks to the upside of the range, the USDJPY could rally to the longer-term moving average and even the trend resistance line. If price breaks to the downside of the range, price is unlikely to provide as much movement but could move and test the trend support line identified on the above chart.

The Fed recently didn’t change US rates but kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. The recent Japanese Monetary Policy Statement and announcement from the BOJ has provided some strength to the Yen – most experts were expecting a greater stimulus package. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD - 02.08.2016

GOLD continues to be bullish and is currently moving higher. If price pulls back in today’s trading sessions, there could be buying opportunities around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the trend support line.