Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 01, 2016


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD - 01.08.2016

The AUDUSD was very bullish during Friday’s trading sessions. Price has moved and closed above some key resistance levels and the bullish moving averages are widening – all suggesting that the bullish move could continue. If price retraces before moving higher, buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the bullish moving averages and around the previous trend resistance line and horizontal resistance (both now support) identified on the above chart.

The recent release of Australian Monetary Policy Meeting minutes have influenced a sell-off of the Australian Dollar. This sell-off seems to becoming to an end but it could continue if more negative Australian economic news is released. As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. US ISM Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 01.08.2016

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP found support around the shorter-term moving average and was bullish in Friday’s trading sessions. Price has formed a tightening – but bullish – consolidation pattern. If price breaks to the upside of the consolidation, price could move much higher. Buying opportunities could exist around the upside break of the consolidation, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the consolidation support area.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. The future of the Euro is very unclear. UK Manufacturing data is set to be released at 0830 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD 01.08.2016

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has continued to be bullish and price has moved much higher. Price is now looking over-extended and could be bearish and start retracing in today’s trading sessions. Short-term selling opportunities could exist as price moves lower. Longer-term buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. The EURUSD has been rallying since the Fed announcement and may now have some clear price direction. US ISM Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD 01.08.2016

As mentioned in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD continues to consolidate and lack price direction. The moving averages are bullish but they are providing no clear price direction. Selling opportunities could exist as price tests the consolidation resistance area but any large price movement is unlikely to come until price moves out of the consolidation area (support area around 1.3075, resistance area around 1.3275).

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50%. UK Manufacturing data is set to be released at 0830 UTC today. US Manufacturing data is also being released today, the announcement being at 1400 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD 01.08.2016

Price continued to be bullish in Friday’s trading sessions and has moved much higher. The moving averages continue to widen and look very bullish, suggesting that price could continue to move higher. Buying opportunities could exist if price pulls back to the moving averages.

Due to the correlation between AUD and NZD, the recent release of Australian Monetary Policy Meeting minutes have influenced a recent sell-off of the New Zealand Dollar. This sell-off seems to becoming to an end but it could continue if negative AUS or NZ economic news is released. As expected, the Fed didn’t change US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. US Manufacturing data is also being released today, the announcement being at 1400 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD 01.08.2016

The USDCAD continued to retrace the recent bullish move in Friday’s trading sessions but price has been finding support since being rejected around the 61.8% Fib level. If the support holds, price could attempt a swing higher. If the support breaks, we could see the recent bullish move be completely reversed. The moving averages are bearish and are showing no sign of selling momentum weakening.

As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. US Manufacturing data is also being released today, the announcement being at 1400 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF 01.08.2016

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF continued to move lower and be bearish in Friday’s trading sessions. The moving averages are very bearish but price is looking a little over-extended – proving some uncertainty to which direction price will be in today’s trading sessions. If price is bullish in today’s trading sessions, price could reverse around any of the key Fib levels (23.6% and 38.2% more likely) and around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. US Manufacturing data is also being released today, the announcement being at 1400 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY 01.08.2016

The USDJPY is currently down-trending and price has formed some clear lower highs and lower lows. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the bearish move could continue. If price is initially bullish in today’s trading sessions, there could be selling opportunities around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages.

As expected, the Fed didn’t change US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50% – this has contributed to some weakness in the US Dollar. The recent Japanese Monetary Policy Statement and announcement from the BOJ has provided some strength to the Yen. Most experts were expecting a greater stimulus package. US Manufacturing data is also being released today, the announcement being at 1400 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD 01.08.2016

Gold is trending higher and was bullish in Friday’s trading sessions. The moving averages are bullish and are wide, suggesting that the longer-term upside move could continue. Buying opportunities could exist if price reaches the dynamic support of the moving averages or the trend support line.