Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 29, 2016


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD 29.07.2016

The AUDUSD came off the resistance area around 0.7540 and then found support at the shorter-term moving average in yesterday’s trading sessions. Price has formed a clear bullish channel and price is currently coming off the channel resistance. The moving averages are bullish but are tightening, suggesting that price could be bearish in today’s trading sessions. If the AUDUSD is bearish, we could see price attempt to move to the channel support area.

The recent release of Australian Monetary Policy Meeting minutes have influenced a sell-off of the Australian Dollar. This sell-off seems to becoming to an end but it could continue if more negative Australian economic news is released. As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate 0.50%. US Advance GDP is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP 29.07.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has moved above the consolidation pattern and is now trending higher. Price pulled back overnight (UTC) but has found support around the dynamic support of the moving averages. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, confirming that an upside move is likely in today’s trading sessions. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages and around the trend support area. Price could stall or reverse around the trend resistance area identified on the above chart.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. The future of the Euro is very unclear. There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD 29.07.2016

The EURUSD initially kept the bullish momentum in yesterday’s trading sessions but has since been retracing some of the recent bullish move. The moving averages continue to widen and look very bullish, suggesting that the bullish move could continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50%. The EURUSD has been rallying since the Fed announcement and may now have some clear price direction. US Advance GDP is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD 29.07.2016

As mentioned in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD continues to consolidate between several areas of support and resistance and is lacking any clear market direction. The moving averages have crossed bullish but are providing no clear direction either. The GBPUSD is likely to continue to lack direction until price either moves above the horizontal resistance at 1.3285 or below the horizontal support at 1.3075.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50%. US Advance GDP is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD 29.07.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD found support around the shorter-term moving average and has continued to be bullish. The bullish moving averages are beginning to tighten and price could be forming a double-top pattern just under the 50.0% Fib level – all suggesting that the retracement could be coming to an end. Short-term buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages (if they hold) but longer-term selling opportunities are likely to be more profitable.

Due to the correlation between AUD and NZD, the recent release of Australian Monetary Policy Meeting minutes have influenced a recent sell-off of the New Zealand Dollar. This sell-off seems to becoming to an end but it could continue if negative AUS or NZ economic news is released. As expected, the Fed didn’t change US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50%. US Advance GDP is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD 29.07.2016

The USDCAD is still in retracement phase after the recent bullish swing. Price touched the 38.2% Fib area and has since been bullish. The moving averages are bearish and are widening, suggesting that the retracement may continue. Buying opportunities could exist as price moves higher and closes above the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.3240. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and if price starts a bearish move lower. There is also a possible triangular consolidation forming. This could provide a breakout trade.

As expected, the Fed hasn’t changed US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50%. US Advance GDP is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. Canadian GDP is also set to be released at the same time.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF 29.07.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed below the horizontal support at 0.9845 and has since moved much lower. The moving averages have crossed bearish and price has closed below some clear swing lows – both suggesting that a longer-term bearish move could now start. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal support (now resistance) at 0.9845.

As expected, the Fed didn’t change US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50%. US Advance GDP is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY 29.07.2016

The USDJPY continues to be bearish and has formed a swing lower overnight (UTC). The moving averages are still bearish but are tighter than they were, suggesting that price may retrace before moving lower. If price does retrace, selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the trend resistance line.

As expected, the Fed didn’t change US rates but have kept them at the low rate of 0.50%. The recent Japanese Monetary Policy Statement and announcement from the BOJ has provided some strength to the Yen. Most experts were expecting a greater stimulus package. US Advance GDP is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD - 29.07.2016

Gold is retracing some of the recent bullish move but bounced at the previous horizontal resistance at 1334.00 (as suggesting in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD is currently finding support around the shorter-term moving average. Price has formed a potential upwards channel and could attempt a move to the channel support area in today’s trading sessions.