Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 27, 2016

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has formed a bullish channel and is currently testing the channel support area. The moving averages have crossed bullish and the overall trend is up – both suggesting that the trend support may hold and price could attempt a move to the channel resistance area in today’s trading sessions. A buying opportunity could exist around the upwards channel support area. If price moves and closes above the channel resistance, price could rally higher.

The recent release of Australian Monetary Policy Meeting minutes have influenced a sell-off of the Australian Dollar. This sell-off seems to becoming to an end but it could continue if more negative Australian economic news is released. The Fed will announce rates at 1800 UTC today. Most traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Durable Goods Orders data is set to be released at 1230 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1430 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has tested and moved off the consolidation resistance pattern (identified in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price could test the consolidation support in today’s trading sessions. If so, price action may present some buying opportunities. Buying opportunities could also exist around the consolidation resistance.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. The future of the Euro is very unclear. The UK’s Prelim GDP figure is set to be released at 0830 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The EURUSD continues to be choppy and lack strong price direction. Price has formed a bearish channel and price is currently coming off the channel resistance area. The bearish moving averages are tightening, suggesting that price may test the channel resistance again. If price moves and closes above the channel resistance area, price could start a bullish move higher. The move could stall or reverse though around the horizontal resistance at 1.1040.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). The Fed will announce rates at 1800 UTC today. Most traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Durable Goods Orders data is set to be released at 1230 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1430 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As mentioned in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD continues to consolidate between many areas of support and resistance. During yesterday’s trading sessions, price formed an even tighter range (1.3075-1.3160). There are lot’s of possible breakout trades in today’s trading sessions. The breakout that may provide the biggest move could be the break of the horizontal support at 1.3075. There is very little support under this area, suggesting that price could move a lot lower.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. The UK’s Prelim GDP figure is set to be released at 0830 UTC today. The Fed will announce rates at 1800 UTC. Most traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Durable Goods Orders data is set to be released at 1230 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1430 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is currently testing the shorter-term moving average and finding support. Short-term buying opportunities could exist if price continues to retrace higher. The pull back may end and price may start to move lower around the 38.2%, 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels – creating some longer-term selling opportunities. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the retracement is likely to continue.

Due to the correlation between AUD and NZD, The recent release of Australian Monetary Policy Meeting minutes have influenced a recent sell-off of the New Zealand Dollar. This sell-off seems to becoming to an end but it could continue if negative AUS or NZ economic news is released. The Fed will announce rates at 1800 UTC today. Most traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Durable Goods Orders data is set to be released at 1230 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1430 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has retraced some of the recent bullish move and is currently finding support around the trend support line. The moving averages are still bullish but are tightening slightly. Buying opportunities could exist as price moves higher but I am personally looking for a bearish move. If price moves and closes below the trend support line, price could move lower and start a more significant retracement. A bearish move could stall or reverse around any of the key Fib levels.

The Fed will announce rates at 1800 UTC today. Most traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Durable Goods Orders data is set to be released at 1230 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1430 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF is looking very bullish and is pushing much higher. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that price could move higher in today’s trading sessions. Buying opportunities could exist if price pulls back to around the horizontal resistance levels (now support) at 0.9890 and 0.9895 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

The Fed will announce rates at 1800 UTC today. Most traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Durable Goods Orders data is set to be released at 1230 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1430 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY was bullish in yesterday’s trading sessions and is currently finding resistance around the trend resistance area and previous horizontal support. The moving averages are bearish and are showing little sign of tightening, suggesting that the trend resistance may hold. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area and as price moves back below the bearish moving averages. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 104.00.

The Fed will announce rates at 1800 UTC today. Most traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Durable Goods Orders data is set to be released at 1230 UTC and US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1430 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is still struggling to move lower and may attempt a bullish move in today’s trading sessions. If price is bullish, the move could stall or reverse around the consolidation resistance (identified on the above chart) or around the horizontal resistance at 1.334. The moving averages continue to be bearish though. If price is bearish also, selling opportunities could exist as price moves out of the consolidation support area.

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