Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 26, 2016

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD was bullish in yesterday’s trading sessions and has moved above the channel resistance and the horizontal resistance at 0.7515. The bearish moving averages are tightening and looking more bullish, suggesting that an upside move could continue. The longer-term trend is also up, so the recent bullish move may be the start of a price swing higher. If price is pulls back before moving higher, there could be buying opportunities around the previous horizontal resistance (now support) at 0.7515, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous bearish channel resistance (now support).

The recent release of Australian Monetary Policy Meeting minutes have influenced a sell-off of the Australian Dollar. This sell-off has continued and price could possibly move even lower if negative Australian economic data is released. With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US CB Consumer Confidence data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to move within the consolidation area (identified in yesterday’s chart analysis) and is currently nearing the consolidation resistance. The moving averages have crossed bullish and price is moving strongly higher, both suggesting that price could break to the upside of the consolidation in today’s trading sessions. Buying opportunities could exist as price tests the consolidation resistance at 0.8420 and if price breaks to the upside of the consolidation.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. The future of the Euro is very unclear.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was bullish in yesterday’s trading sessions as it attempts a possible move to the bearish channel resistance. Price has closed above the moving averages, suggesting that the bullish move may continue. Price could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.1040.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US CB Consumer Confidence data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As mentioned in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continues to consolidate and is lacking market direction. The moving averages confirm this, they have crossed a number of times and are providing no clear market direction. Price is currently near a consolidation support line, price could move off this support and near a consolidation resistance in today’s trading sessions.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US CB Consumer Confidence data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD struggled to push lower in yesterday’s trading sessions and has consequently moved higher. The bearish moving averages are tightening and looking more bullish, suggesting that the upside move may continue. There could be short-term buying opportunities if price continues to be bullish but the longer-term trend is down. Potential selling opportunities could exist around the 38.2%, 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels.

Due to the correlation between AUD and NZD, the recent release of Australian Monetary Policy Meeting minutes have influenced a sell-off of the New Zealand Dollar. This has been coupled with negative economic news from New Zealand, hence the large bearish move on NZDUSD. With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US CB Consumer Confidence data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD continued to be bullish in yesterday’s trading sessions. As mentioned in yesterday’s chart analysis, price is looking a little over-extended and could be due a retracement, though the moving averages continue to look very bullish, suggesting that the bullish move could continue. If price does start retracing in today’s trading sessions, there could be buying opportunities around the trend support line, around the bullish moving averages and around the key Fib levels. Due to the size of the bullish move, I expect price to have a fairly significant retracement, at least to the 38.2% Fib level.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US CB Consumer Confidence data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price is currently ranging between the horizontal support at 0.9845 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9890. A break to the downside of the range could provide a more significant move – if price breaks to the upside, there are a number of resistance levels that may stall or reverse price. If price does move lower after a break of the horizontal support at 0.9845, price could attempt a move to the upwards channel support area.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US CB Consumer Confidence data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved and closed below the trend support area and the horizontal support, leading to a strong USDJPY sell-off. If price is bullish in today’s trading sessions, there could be selling opportunities around the previous horizontal support (now resistance) at 105.60, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the identified trend resistance line.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US CB Consumer Confidence data is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD is looking a little indecisive and is struggling to move lower. There is a potential triangular consolidation forming but the moving averages are still bearish, suggesting that price could yet move lower. If the consolidation support holds, price could move between the consolidation support and consolidation resistance.

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