Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 25, 2016


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD 25.07.2016

The AUDUSD continues to be bearish. Price has formed a downwards channel and is currently moving off the channel support. The bearish moving averages are tightening, suggesting that price may continue to retrace and reach the downwards channel resistance in today’s trading sessions. Selling opportunities could exist around the channel resistance. If price is bullish in today’s trading sessions and price moves and closes above the channel resistance, price may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.7515.

The recent release of Australian Monetary Policy Meeting minutes have influenced a sell-off of the Australian Dollar. This sell-off has continued and price could possibly move even lower if negative Australian economic data is released. With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. There is no major scheduled news in todays trading sessions that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP 25.07.2016

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price found support around the consolidation support and broke to the upside of the triangular consolidation pattern. Price has now formed a second consolidation pattern and price is moving between the horizontal resistance at 0.8420 and the identified diagonal support. The moving averages continue to cross and are providing no clear direction, this confirms that a consolidation is taking place. Buying opportunities could exist if price reaches the consolidation support area or if price moves and closes above the horizontal resistance.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. The future of the Euro is very unclear. German Ifo Business Climate data is set to be released at 0800 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD 25.07.2016

The EURUSD continues to look choppy but is steadily moving lower. Price recently bounced off the trend support line and is attempting to push higher. The bearish moving averages are tightening, suggesting that the bearish momentum is weakening and that price may attempt to move towards the trend resistance area.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. German Ifo Business Climate data is set to be released at 0800 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD 25.07.2016

As mentioned in Friday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD continues to look indecisive and is lacking market direction. The moving averages confirm this, they are crossing regularly and providing no clear market direction. There are several support and resistance areas identified on the above chart. Short-term buying and selling opportunities could exist at either of these areas but don’t expect any large moves. Due to the market indecision, price is likely to bounce off the current support and resistance levels rather than form any large market swings.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 25.07.2016

The NZDUSD continues to find support around the 0.6960-0.6970 area and is struggling to move lower. The bearish moving averages are tightening, suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening and that price may now retrace. Potential short-term buying opportunities could exist if price retraces higher. The retracement may stall or even reverse around the key Fib levels – this may provide some selling opportunities.

Due to the correlation between AUD and NZD, the recent release of Australian Monetary Policy Meeting minutes have influenced a sell-off of the New Zealand Dollar. This has been coupled with negative economic news from New Zealand, hence the large bearish move on NZDUSD. With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. There is no major scheduled news in todays trading sessions that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD 25.07.2016

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price continued to be very bullish in Friday’s trading sessions. The USDCAD is now looking over-extended though and could be due a retracement. The moving averages currently do not agree but continue to be very bullish, suggesting that the upside move may continue. If price pulls back in today’s trading sessions, there could be buying opportunities around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the 23.6% Fib level or around the trend support line. If price starts a longer-term retracement, the retracement may stall or reverse around any of the key Fib levels.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

USDCHF 25.07.2016

The USDCHF is trending higher but price is looking a little choppy and is forming a number of potential consolidation patterns. If price is initially bearish in today’s trading sessions, there could be buying opportunities around the trend support line (identified on the above chart). If price is bullish in today’s trading sessions, there could by buying opportunities if price tests and closes above the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9890 and 0.9895.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY 25.07.2016

The USDJPY continues to be bullish but price is looking a little over-extended. The moving averages confirm this as they have crossed bearish. Price is currently testing the channel support area. If price moves and closes below this area, price may move lower. The horizontal level at 105.60 may provide some support. Selling opportunities could exist around the break of any of the support areas and around the dynamic resistance of the bearish moving averages.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD 25.07.2016

Just like many of the US Dollar markets, GOLD is looking choppy and a little indecisive. The moving averages have been bearish but are now tightening, suggesting that price may now move higher. There is a potential triangular consolidation pattern forming (identified on the above chart) and a clear horizontal resistance at 1334.00.