Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 21, 2016


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD 21.07.2016

The AUDUSD was bearish in yesterday’s trading sessions. Price is now retracing some of the recent downwards move and is currently slightly bullish. The moving averages are bearish but are starting to slightly tighten, suggesting that selling momentum could be weakening. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the bearish moving averages or around the trend resistance line. If price moves and closes above the trend resistance line, there could be a buying opportunity around the previous trend support area.

The recent release of Australian Monetary Policy Meeting minutes have influenced a sell-off of the Australian Dollar. This sell-off has continued and price could possibly move even lower if negative Australian economic data is released. With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Unemployment Claims and Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 21.07.2016

The EURGBP is looking very indecisive and is lacking market direction. Price is currently consolidating between a diagonal support and a diagonal resistance and has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. There could be a long or short break out trade if price moves out of the consolidation in today’s trading sessions. If price breaks and rallies to the upside, price could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance (previously support) at 0.8500.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. UK Retail Sales are set to be released at 0830 UTC today. The European Central Bank (ECB) are set to announce bid rate at 1145 UTC. This will be followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD 21.07.2016

The EURUSD was bullish in yesterday’s trading sessions and has is currently testing the previous range support area. From a technical view, the EURUSD could move lower in today’s trading sessions. Selling opportunities could exist around the range support (now resistance) or around the bearish moving averages.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Unemployment Claims and Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. The European Central Bank (ECB) are set to announce bid rate at 1145 UTC. This will be followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD 21.07.2016

The GBPUSD was bullish in yesterday’s trading sessions. The moving averages are bearish but price is looking indecisive and is lacking market direction. From a technical view, other currency pairs may provide better trading opportunities.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. UK Retail Sales are set to be released at 0830 UTC today. US Unemployment Claims and Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1230 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD 21.07.2016

The NZDUSD continues to be very bearish. Price is now looking a little over-extended and price could be bullish in today’s trading sessions. The moving averages confirm this – they are still bearish but are beginning to tighten. If price is bullish in today’s trading sessions, there could be short-term selling opportunities around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance line or around the previous horizontal support at 0.7070.

Due to the correlation between AUD and NZD, the recent release of Australian Monetary Policy Meeting minutes have influenced a sell-off of the New Zealand Dollar. This has been coupled with negative economic news from New Zealand, hence the large bearish move on NZDUSD. With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Unemployment Claims and Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD 21.07.2016

Price initially bounced off the trend support line (identified in yesterday’s chart analysis) but has since been bearish and has closed below the trend support line. Price is now testing a more conservative trend support line and the shorter-term moving averages, this could provide a buying opportunity. If price does find support, the USDCAD could move higher in today’s trading sessions. If price moves and closes below the trend support line, price could retrace to around the longer-term moving average.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Unemployment Claims and Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF 21.07.2016

Price attempted a swing higher in yesterday’s trading sessions but quickly reversed. Price is currently finding support around the dynamic support of the longer-term moving average but buying momentum seems to be weakening. If price moves and closes below the longer-term moving average, price is likely to continue to be bearish. If price is bullish in today’s trading sessions, buying opportunities could exist around the break of the recent swing high.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Unemployment Claims and Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY 21.07.2016

The USDJPY continues to be bullish and found support around the trend support line in yesterday’s trading sessions. If price retraces in today’s trading sessions, buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages or around the trend support area.

The Yen has been weakening due to a recent announcement that Japan may boost their QE program and provide greater stimulus. If this decision is taken, the USDJPY may continue it’s bullish move and start a longer-term uptrend. Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Unemployment Claims and Manufacturing data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD 21.07.2016

Price closed out of the triangular consolidation in yesterday’s trading sessions and has moved strong lower. The bearish moving averages are widening, suggesting that the bearish run may continue. If price retraces before moving lower, selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages or around the trend resistance line.