Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 20, 2016


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD 20.07.2016

The AUDUSD was bearish in yesterday’s trading sessions. The moving averages are very bearish and are showing no sign of tightening, suggesting that the bearish run will continue, although price is currently bouncing off a support area around 0.7475-0.7480. If price retraces before moving lower, there could be selling opportunities around the dynamic resistance of the bearish moving averages or around the trend resistance line. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the support area at 0.7475-0.7480.

The recent release of Australian Monetary Policy Meeting minutes have influenced a sell-off of the Australian Dollar. This sell-off could continue, especially if further Australian negative economic data is released. With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP 20.07.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP continued to be bullish in yesterday’s trading sessions. The moving averages have crossed bullish, suggesting that the bullish move may continue. Price is currently testing the trend support area, this may provide a buying opportunity. If not, there could be buying opportunities around the dynamic support of the moving averages. If price continues to be bullish in today’s trading sessions, price could stall or reverse bearish around the horizontal resistance (previously support) at 0.8500.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. The UK is set to release Average Earnings Index and Claimant Count Change data at 0830 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD 20.07.2016

The EURUSD was bearish in yesterday’s trading sessions and price moved and closed below the range support area. This may now give the EURUSD some clear direction and price could continue to be bearish. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bearish and are widening. Selling opportunities could exist if price tests the previous range support (now resistance) or if price tests the dynamic resistance of the bearish moving averages.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD 20.07.2016

Price was bearish during yesterday’s trading sessions (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is still lacking clear direction though, even with the bearish move and a bearish moving averages cross. If price continues to move lower in today’s trading sessions, we could see the bearish run stall or reverse around the potential trend support line identified on the above chart. From a technical view, other currency pairs may provide better trading opportunities.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. The UK is set to release Average Earnings Index and Claimant Count Change data at 0830 UTC today. US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1400 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD 20.07.2016

The NZDUSD is currently retracing some of the recent bearish move. If the longer-term bearish move is going to continue, there could be selling opportunities around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages or around the previous horizontal resistance (previously support) at 0.7070.

Due to the correlation between AUD and NZD, the recent release of Australian Monetary Policy Meeting minutes have influenced a sell-off of the New Zealand Dollar. This has been coupled with negative economic news from New Zealand, hence the large bearish move on NZDUSD. With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD 20.07.2016

The USDCAD continues to be bullish and has just moved off the trend support line. The moving averages are bullish and are widening, suggesting that price could continue it’s bullish run. Overall though, price is looking choppy and a little indecisive. The recent swing highs and lows and similar in size and momentum. If the upwards direction is going to continue in today’s trading, there could be buying opportunities around the trend support line or the bullish moving averages.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF 20.07.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF moved and closed out of the symmetrical triangle consolidation and provided a strong bullish trading opportunity. The longer-term trend is up and price could now attempt a swing higher. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bullish and are widening. Buying opportunities could exist if price retraces to the dynamic support of the bullish moving averages or around the trend support line.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY 20.07.2016

The USDJPY is looking tired and due a bearish retracement. Price recently found support around the trend support area and the shorter-term moving average but it is likely that price could move and close below these areas soon. Selling opportunities could exist around the break of the trend support line and around other resistance areas. If price does start retracing, it could retrace as far back as the 104.60 area.

The Yen has been weakening due to a recent announcement that Japan may boost their QE program and provide greater stimulus. If this decision is taken, the USDJPY may continue it’s bullish move and start a longer-term uptrend. Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Crude Oil Inventories is set to be released at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD 20.07.2016

Price has been able to slightly rally off the trend support line (identified in yesterday’s chart analysis) but has since moved back to the trend support area. Price has also formed a potential consolidation pattern. Possible break out trades could exist when price moves above or below the consolidation pattern. The moving averages are bearish and the support has been tested more than the resistance, suggesting that a break to the downside is more likely.