Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 19, 2016

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD was bearish in yesterday’s trading sessions, however the trend support line did not hold and price has moved much lower. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are currently widening, suggesting that price may continue to be bearish. If price retraces before moving lower, there could be selling opportunities around the dynamic resistance of the bearish moving averages or around the trend resistance line.

The minutes of a recent Australian Monetary Policy Meeting were released at 0130 UTC. The market reaction to these minutes was very negative for the AUD, possibly causing a change in market direction for some AUD currency pairs. With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Building Permits data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price was initially bearish in yesterday’s trading sessions but has since moved higher and even closed above the trend resistance line identified in yesterday’s chart analysis. The bearish moving averages are tightening and price is close to forming a higher swing high, both suggesting that the down move is now over and that price may now be bullish. Buying opportunities could exist around the identified trend support line and around the moving averages (if they cross bullish).

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. German Economic Sentiment data will be released at 0900 UTC today and UK CPI data is set to be released at 0830 UTC.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The EURUSD continues to range and consolidate between the horizontal support at 1.1025 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1165. From a technical view, it is worth waiting for a range breakout as this may provide some market direction. It may be possible to take trades off the horizontal levels and trade the range. There is also a diagonal support (see above chart), this may also provide some trade opportunities.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. German Economic Sentiment data will be released at 0900 UTC today and US Building Permits data is set to be released at 1230 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD was bullish in yesterday’s trading sessions. The bullish moving averages are tightening and could cross bearish, suggesting that price may be bearish in today’s trading sessions. Overall though, price is a little indecisive and lacking clear market direction. From a technical view, other currency pairs may provide better trading opportunities.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. UK CPI data is set to be released at 0830 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The NZDUSD has continued its downwards move and has clearly moved and closed below the horizontal support at 0.7070. The moving averages are very bearish and are showing no sign of weakening, though it is likely that price may retrace a little before a new attempt to move lower. Price has moved and closed below the swing low of the recent uptrend (0.7090), signalling that price may now downtrend longer-term. If price does move higher before moving lower, selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support (now resistance) at 0.7070.

Due to the correlation between the AUD and NZD, the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting minutes caused a sell-off of both the AUD and NZD. With regards to the US Dollar, traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Building Permits data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The trend resistance line did not hold in yesterday’s trading sessions. Price has clearly closed above the resistance area and then also found support around the previous trend resistance. With this in mind, price could now be bullish. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and could possibly cross bullish in today’s trading sessions. Possible buying opportunities could exist around the trend support line or around the dynamic support of the moving averages.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Building Permits data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF is looking a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are bearish but price is comfortably closing above the moving averages and overall looking bullish. Price has formed clear diagonal support and diagonal resistance lines and price is consolidating within this area. Buying or selling opportunities may exist as price moves out of the consolidation (breakout trade). If price is bearish in today’s trading sessions, price may stall or reverse around the support area at 0.9770-0.9780.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Building Permits data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY continues to be bullish. The moving averages are also bullish but price is looking over-extended and could be due a retracement. Price has been finding dynamic support at both of the moving averages. If price tests the longer-term moving average again, price may move below the moving and reverse a portion of the recent bullish run. If price is bullish in today’s trading sessions though, there could be buying opportunities around the break of the horizontal resistance at 106.25 and around the trend support line.

The Yen has been weakening due to a recent announcement that Japan may boost their QE program and provide greater stimulus. If this decision is taken, the USDJPY may continue it’s bullish move and start a longer-term uptrend. Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Building Permits data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD continues to look bearish but is currently finding support around the trend support line. The moving averages are bearish, this could suggest that price may move below the trend support line and move lower. If the support breaks, there could be selling opportunities around the break of the support and as price tests the previous support as resistance. If the support holds, there could be buying opportunities as price moves off the support level and attempts a move higher.

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