Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 18, 2016


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD 18.07.2016

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the trend support line was tested once again and did not hold. The AUDUSD since the break of the support has been bearish. The bullish moving averages are tightening and look like they may cross bearish in today’s trading sessions, suggesting that the bearish run may continue. If the moving averages do cross bearish, there could be a selling opportunity around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. Price may stall or reverse around the identified bullish trend line (see above chart).

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. There is no major scheduled news in today’s trading sessions that will impact this pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP 18.07.2016

During Friday’s trading sessions, the EURGBP was initially very bullish but price stalled and slightly reversed around the trend resistance line and the longer-term bearish moving average (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The moving averages continue to be bearish, suggesting that price could move lower in today’s trading sessions. Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance line and the bearish moving averages. Price could stall or reverse at the trend support line identified on the above chart.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. A member of the UK’s Monetary Policy Committee will speak at 0815 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD 18.07.2016

The EURUSD continues to range between the horizontal support at 1.1025 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1165. The moving averages have crossed so many times that they are no longer reliable as a tool for price direction. Price is near the range support. If the support holds, there could be long opportunities. There could also be a long opportunity around the diagonal support level identified on the above chart. If price moves and closes below the horizontal support level, there could be selling opportunities at the break of the support or if price returns to the support as resistance.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. There is no major scheduled news in today’s trading sessions that will impact this pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD 18.07.2016

The GBPUSD reversed the recent bullish run and is now moving within a tight consolidation. The moving averages are bullish but price is freely moving and closing below both moving averages, suggesting that a bearish move could be more likely than a bullish move in today’s trading sessions. Overall, price is a little indecisive and lacking clear market direction.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England haven’t cut rates as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. A member of the UK’s Monetary Policy Committee will speak at 0815 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD 18.07.2016

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD found resistance around the previous trend support area and has moved lower. The NZDUSD is currently retracing off the 0.7070 horizontal support level and managing to reverse some of the recent bearish move. If price continues to retrace, selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages or if price moves below the 0.7070 support area.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. There is no major scheduled news in today’s trading sessions that will impact this pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD 18.07.2016

Overall, the USDCAD was bullish during Friday’s trading sessions but as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the bullish move stalled and reversed around the identified trend resistance line. The USDCAD continues to find resistance around that area and has been rejected several times. The bullish moving averages are tightening, suggesting that there may not be enough selling momentum to create a significant swing lower. If price moves above the trend resistance area (as suggested by the moving averages), price could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.2985.

The OIL markets continue to be bearish, this in turn is weakening the CAD and helping USDCAD to move higher (though poor economic data has also been released from the US, bringing the USDCAD down). If the OIL markets start appreciating, USDCAD could start moving much lower. Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF 18.07.2016

The USDCHF is looking a little choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are bearish but price is comfortably closing above the moving averages and overall looking bullish. There could be a buying opportunity today if price reaches the trend support levels around 0.9770-0.9780. From a technical view, other currency pairs may provide better trading opportunities.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. There is no major scheduled news in today’s trading sessions that will impact this pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY 18.07.2016

The USDJPY is comfortably moving below the recent trend support line. Price has bounced off the longer-term moving average but I believe that it is likely that price will test the dynamic resistance again. Overall, price is looking over-extended and could be preparing for a bearish move.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. There is no major scheduled news in today’s trading sessions that will impact this pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD 18.07.2016

GOLD continues to look bearish but is currently finding support around the trend support line. The moving averages are bearish, this could suggest that price may move below the trend support line and move lower. If the support breaks, there could be selling opportunities around the break of the support and as price tests the previous support as resistance. If the support holds, there could be buying opportunities as price moves off the support level and attempts a move higher.