Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 15, 2016

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price found support again around the trend support line area and the shorter-term moving average but quickly reversed bearish around the trend resistance area (as identified and suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Overall, price is very bullish. The moving averages are still bullish, suggesting that the bullish move could continue. The trend support line has been tested so many times that price is likely to move below the trend support area if the trend support line is tested again. If price is bearish today, selling opportunities could exist at the break of the trend support line or around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. If price is bullish, price may stall or reverse around the trend resistance line (identified on the chart above).

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Retail Sales and CPI data is scheduled to be released at 1230 UTC today. US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment is set to be released at 1400 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price moved lower in yesterday’s trading sessions and was able to move below the previous swing low. The moving averages continue to be bearish but are starting to tighten, suggesting that price may now retrace. If price does retrace, there could be possible selling opportunities around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages or around the trend resistance line.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England didn’t cut rates yesterday as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. The governor of the Bank of England will speak today at 1200 UTC.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reached the horizontal range resistance in yesterday’s trading sessions. Price quickly reversed off this area and is still clearly within the sideways range. The moving averages continue to be bullish and are currently widening, suggesting that an upside break of the range could happen in today’s trading sessions. Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal resistance at 1.1165.

The future of the Euro is very unclear (not uncertain, just indecisive). Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Retail Sales and CPI data is scheduled to be released at 1230 UTC today. US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment is set to be released at 1400 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD is currently bullish and forming clear swing highs and swing lows. The moving averages are also bullish, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. If price retraces at some point in today’s trading sessions, there could be buying opportunities around the bullish moving averages and around the trend support line.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May) and a new government has now been formed – this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England didn’t cut rates yesterday as expected. The UK is now looking a lot more stable and I don’t expect any major sell-offs or volatility. The future of sterling is still a little uncertain though and most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. The governor of the Bank of England will speak today at 1200 UTC. US Retail Sales and CPI data is scheduled to be released at 1230 UTC today. US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment is set to be released at 1400 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the previous horizontal support and has moved below the channel support line. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are currently widening, suggesting that price could continue to be bearish. If price retraces in today’s trading sessions, there could be selling opportunities around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the previous trend support area.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Retail Sales and CPI data is scheduled to be released at 1230 UTC today. US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment is set to be released at 1400 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD is currently retracing some of the recent bearish move. The moving averages are very bearish and are still widening, suggesting that price could lower in today’s trading sessions. Potential selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, the trend resistance line or around the previous horizontal support (now resistance) at 1.2985.

The OIL markets continue to be bearish, this in turn is weakening the CAD and helping USDCAD to move higher (though poor economic data has also been released from the US, bringing the USDCAD down). If the OIL markets start appreciating, USDCAD could start moving much lower. Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Retail Sales and CPI data and Canadian Manufacturing Sales data is scheduled to be released at 1230 UTC today. US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment is set to be released at 1400 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was bearish in yesterday’s trading sessions. Price is clearly under the recent trend support area and the moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that price could start down-trending. If price moves higher before moving lower, there could be selling opportunities around the bearish moving averages.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Retail Sales and CPI data is scheduled to be released at 1230 UTC today. US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment is set to be released at 1400 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY continues to be very bullish and forming higher swing highs and higher swing lows. From a technical view, there is very little to analyse on the USDJPY. Other currency pairs may provide better technical trading opportunities.

The Yen has been weakening due to a recent announcement that Japan may boost their QE program and provide greater stimulus. If this decision is taken, the USDJPY may continue it’s bullish move and start a longer-term uptrend. Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US Retail Sales and CPI data is scheduled to be released at 1230 UTC today. US Preliminary Consumer Sentiment is set to be released at 1400 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD continues to be bearish and is currently retracing some of the recent price swing lower. The moving averages suggest that price could trend lower. Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages or around the trend resistance line.

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