Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 14, 2016


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD 14.07.2016

The AUDUSD found support and bounced off the trend support line identified in yesterday’s chart analysis. The bullish moving averages are currently showing no signs of weakness, suggesting that price could continue to move higher. If the trend support line is tested again, it is likely that it could not hold, causing price to possibly make a move lower in today’s trading sessions. If this was to happen, price would be under the moving averages and could possibly move to the upwards channel support area (currently sitting around 0.7490). If price is bullish in today’s trading sessions, price could stall or reverse around the upwards channel resistance area.

Australia announced poorer than expected job data during the Asian trading session. This could cause a bearish bias in today’s trading sessions. Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US PPI and Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 14.07.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was bullish in yesterday’s trading sessions and bounced off the longer-term moving average. The moving averages continue to be bearish but this could be misleading. Other analysis suggests that price could now move higher. There could be buying or selling opportunities around the previous horizontal support level (now resistance) at 0.8500 or around the trend resistance line currently sitting at 0.8525.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May), this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England will announce the official bank rate at 1100 UTC. Most experts are expecting a cut in interest rates by 0.25%. I believe markets have adjusted according to this forecast so we may not see a major price swing if rates are cut as expected. If the rate is not cut or cut more than expected, GBP pairs may be very volatile and there could be some large price swings. The future of sterling is still uncertain but most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD 14.07.2016

The EURUSD continues to range between the horizontal support at 1.1025 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1165. The moving averages have crossed bullish, suggesting that price could now move higher and possibly test the range resistance. As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price stalled at the symmetrical triangle resistance. Price is still testing this area.

The future of the Euro is very unclear. Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US PPI and Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD 14.07.2016

Price was bearish in yesterday’s trading sessions and has moved below the shorter-term moving average. Price is now lacking directional bias and there are very few technical levels that can provide any insight. I suggest trading the GBPUSD using fundamental analysis (see next paragraph) in today’s trading sessions or trading other currency pairs.

Due to the UK planning on leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The UK has appointed a new prime minister (Theresa May), this has provided some stability and strength to the GBP. The Bank of England will announce the official bank rate at 1100 UTC. Most experts are expecting a cut in interest rates by 0.25%. I believe markets have adjusted according to this forecast so we may not see a major price swing if rates are cut as expected. If the rate is not cut or cut more than expected, GBP pairs may be very volatile and there could be some large price swings. The future of sterling is still uncertain but most financial experts believe that the GBP will continue to weaken longer-term. US PPI and Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD - 14.07.2016

The NZDUSD has retraced from the upwards channel resistance and is currently testing the upwards channel support area. If price finds support, there could be some buying opportunities in today’s trading sessions. Saying this, the bullish moving averages are starting to look bearish and the recent sell-off was significantly strong – both suggesting that price could possibly move below the channel support area in today’s trading. A selling opportunity could exist around the previous horizontal support (now resistance) at 0.7210.

Australia announced poorer than expected job data during the Asian trading session. Due to the market correlation between the AUD and NZD, this data release may cause a bearish bias in today’s trading sessions. Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US PPI and Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD 14.07.2016

Price was very bearish in yesterday’s trading sessions and has closed below the clear trend support line. The moving averages have crossed bearish also, all of this suggesting that USDCAD could move lower in coming days. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous trend support line, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages or around the trend resistance line (currently sitting at 1.3030).

The OIL markets continue to be bearish, this in turn is weakening the CAD and helping USDCAD to move higher (though poor economic data has also been released from the US, bringing the USDCAD down). If the OIL markets start appreciating, USDCAD could start moving much lower. Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US PPI and Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF 14.07.2016

The USDCHF is looking a little choppy and indecisive. Price has closed below the trend support line, suggesting that price could now move lower. The bullish moving averages are tightening, confirming this. Selling opportunities could exist around the previous trend support line or around the moving averages.

Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US PPI and Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY 14.07.2016

Price found support around the 23.6% Fib level and moved higher in yesterday’s trading sessions (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). From a technical view, there is very little to analyse on the USDJPY. Other currency pairs may provide better technical trading opportunities.

The Yen has been weakening due to rumours of Japan boosting their QE. If the rumour is confirmed, the USDJPY may continue it’s bullish move and start a longer-term uptrend. Traders, investors, analysts and economists continue to speculate about a possible Fed rate hike. The current majority believe that a rate change is unlikely for at least a few months. US PPI and Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD 14.07.2016

GOLD has continued it’s bearish run and is now nearing the upwards channel support area. There could be a buying opportunity around this area but the moving averages are still looking very bearish. If price moves below the channel support line, there could be selling opportunities around the bearish moving averages and around the previous channel support area.