Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 28, 2016


AUDUSD – 1 Hour

AUDUSD 28.06.2016

As predicted in yesterday’s analysis, the AUDUSD moved lower but was unable to create a new swing low. The support area around 0.7300-0.7320 has held and price has since moved higher. The bearish moving averages are widening, suggesting that price could move lower and test the support area again. There could be selling opportunities at either of the moving averages or as price tests or breaks the support area around 0.7300-0.7320. If the support area holds, there could also be buying opportunities as the support area is tested.

Due to the UK leaving the EU, the USD has strengthened. As economic uncertainty continues, traders and investors could continue to buy safe heaven financial assets like the Japanese Yen, the US Dollar and GOLD. The US Final GDP figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today and US Consumer Sentiment data is due to be released at 1400 UTC. Both of these events may create more volatility than usual, as traders and investors will be analysing this data to gauge the US economy and to speculate if there is likely to be another rate increase this year. If these figures are positive, we may see a strong downside move on the AUDUSD.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP 28.06.2016

In yesterday’s trading sessions, the EURGBP continued it’s bullish run (as mentioned in yesterday’s analysis). Price has started retracing. Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels (23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0% & 61.8%), around the moving averages and if the support level is tested again (0.7980).

Due to the UK leaving the EU, there has been a strong GBP sell-off. The EUR has also been weakening and there is currently a lot of uncertainty over the future of the Euro and Sterling – both currencies are weak, creating a possible hesitant currency pair. There is an EU Summit throughout today. Announcements and speeches from this summit may create some extra movement on EUR pairs.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Charts

EURUSD 28.06.2016

The EURUSD has struggled to create a lower low and is forming a double bottom pattern. Price has moved above the first moving average and the bearish moving averages are tightening, suggesting that price could move higher in today’s trading sessions. There are very few areas of support that could provide some buying opportunities. Trading the potential double bottom reversal pattern could be the best option in today’s trading sessions.

Due to the UK leaving the EU, the USD has strengthened. As economic uncertainty continues, traders and investors could continue to buy safe heaven financial assets like the Japanese Yen, the US Dollar and GOLD. There is a lot of financial concern for the Euro. Over coming days, weeks, and possibly months, we may see the EURUSD move lower. There is an EU Summit throughout today. Announcements and speeches from this summit may create some extra movement on EUR pairs. The US Final GDP figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today and US Consumer Sentiment data is due to be released at 1400 UTC. Both of these events may create more volatility than usual, as traders and investors will be analysing this data to gauge the US economy and to speculate if there is likely to be another rate increase this year. If these figures are positive, we may see a strong downside move on the EURUSD.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD 28.06.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has moved lower and has formed a lower low. Price has started to retrace and is currently testing the 28.6% Fib level (1.3320). Selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels (28.6%, 38.2%, 50.0% & 61.8%) and around the moving averages.

Due to the UK leaving the EU, the USD has strengthened. As economic uncertainty continues, traders and investors could continue to buy safe heaven financial assets like the Japanese Yen, the US Dollar and GOLD. There is a lot of financial concern for Sterling. Over coming days, weeks ad possibly months, we may see the GBPUSD move lower. The US Final GDP figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today and US Consumer Sentiment data is due to be released at 1400 UTC. Both of these events may create more volatility than usual, as traders and investors will be analysing this data to gauge the US economy and to speculate if there is likely to be another rate increase this year. If these figures are positive, we may see a strong downside move on the GBPUSD.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD 28.06.2016

The NZDUSD moved lower in yesterday’s trading but price was unable to create a new swing low. The support area around 0.6970-0.6990 has held and price has since moved higher. The bearish moving averages are beginning to tighten, suggesting that price could move higher in today’s trading. If price moves lower before moving higher, there could be a buying opportunity around the support area at 0.6970-0.6990.

Due to the UK leaving the EU, the USD has strengthened. As economic uncertainty continues, traders and investors could continue to buy safe heaven financial assets like the Japanese Yen, the US Dollar and GOLD. The US Final GDP figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today and US Consumer Sentiment data is due to be released at 1400 UTC. Both of these events may create more volatility than usual, as traders and investors will be analysing this data to gauge the US economy and to speculate if there is likely to be another rate increase this year. If these figures are positive, we may see a strong downside move on the NZDUSD.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD 28.06.2016

The USDCAD moved above the horizontal resistance at 1.3055 in yesterday’s trading. The bullish moving averages are now tightening, suggesting that bullish momentum is weakening and that we could see price retrace and move lower in today’s trading sessions. Buying opportunities (in anticipation of a swing higher) could exist around the 38.2%, 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and at the longer-term moving average. Price has formed a potential upwards channel, if price is bearish throughout this week, there may be buying opportunities if price reaches the channel support.

Due to the UK leaving the EU, the USD has strengthened. As economic uncertainty continues, traders and investors are likely to carry on buying safe heaven assets like the Japanese Yen, the US Dollar and GOLD. This could help the USDCAD move higher over coming days and weeks. If the OIL markets continue to appreciate though, we could see the CAD strengthen. This may cause a slightly hesitant and indecisive USDCAD. From a fundamental view, the EURUSD and GBPUSD may provide greater market swings and clearer market direction. The US Final GDP figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today and US Consumer Sentiment data is due to be released at 1400 UTC. Both of these events may create more volatility than usual, as traders and investors will be analysing this data to gauge the US economy and to speculate if there is likely to be another rate increase this year. If these figures are positive, we may see a strong upside move on the USDCAD.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF 28.06.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has continued to move higher. Price is now looking a little over-extended – I would be slightly hesitant to go long this pair but would ideally wait for a further and deeper retracement first. If there is a retracement, buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the previous resistance (now support) at 0.9630.

Due to the UK leaving the EU, the USD has strengthened. As economic uncertainty continues, traders and investors are likely to carry on buying safe heaven assets like the Japanese Yen, the US Dollar and GOLD. This could help the USDCHF move higher over coming days and weeks. The US Final GDP figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today and US Consumer Sentiment data is due to be released at 1400 UTC. Both of these events may create more volatility than usual, as traders and investors will be analysing this data to gauge the US economy and to speculate if there is likely to be another rate increase this year. If these figures are positive, we may see a strong upside move on the USDCHF.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY 28.06.2016

The USDJPY has been consolidating and has formed a tight horizontal channel. Price has also formed a clear trend support line (currently sitting at 101.75). The break of the horizontal channel could suggest future price direction. If price breaks to the downside, we may see price attempt a longer-term swing lower. If price breaks to the upside, we could see the retracement continue. This pair could provide plenty of trading opportunities today. These opportunities could be around the break of the horizontal channel, the trend support line, around the moving averages and around the previous support (now resistance) at 103.70.

Due to the UK leaving the EU, the JPY has strengthened. As economic uncertainty continues, traders and investors are likely to carry on buying safe heaven assets like the Japanese Yen, the US Dollar and GOLD. This could cause some hesitation and indecision on the USDJPY, as the USD and JPY is being bought. The US Final GDP figure is set to be released at 1230 UTC today and US Consumer Sentiment data is due to be released at 1400 UTC. Both of these events may create more volatility than usual, as traders and investors will be analysing this data to gauge the US economy and to speculate if there is likely to be another rate increase this year. If these figures are positive, we may see a strong upside move on the USDJPY.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD - 28.06.2016

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has formed a double-top price pattern and could now move lower. The bullish moving averages are starting to tighten and price has moved below the first moving average, suggesting that price could be bearish in today’s trading. There is also the possibility that price is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern and that GOLD could consolidate between the tightening support and resistance.

Due to the UK leaving the EU, the markets are very uncertain. As economic uncertainty continues, traders and investors are likely to carry on buying safe heaven assets like the Japanese Yen, the US Dollar and GOLD. This may help GOLD continue to move higher.