Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Chart Analysis – June 23, 2016


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD 23.06.2016

Price was bullish is yesterday’s trading sessions and continues to push higher. The AUDUSD is forming a tightening triangular pattern, a breakout to the downside this consolidation, followed by a bearish move is more likely then a upside break. If price does become bearish and retrace, buying opportunities may exist at the previous resistance (now support) at 0.7400 and at the dynamic support of the bullish moving averages.

As mentioned several times since the beginning of this month, we have seen some big moves higher on the AUDUSD due to the negative and hesitant USD outlook – caused by the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure released June 3rd. US Unemployment Claims is due to be released at 1230 UTC today. This event may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. EU referendum voting starts today and the results should be announced by 0400 UTC Friday. The EU Referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs. Expect the next 36 hours to be very volatile in the Forex markets.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP - 23.06.2016

The EURGBP found some dynamic resistance at one of the moving averages and has now moved lower. Price has formed a downwards channel and the moving averages are still bearish – suggesting that there could be further downside momentum. If price starts retracing and the market is bullish, selling opportunities could present themselves at the downwards channel resistance (currently sitting at 0.7700) and at the previous support level (now resistance) of 0.7780

The GBP had been weakening due to Brexit uncertainty. Recent poll results suggest that ‘Remain’ is back in the lead, the GBP has consequently been strengthening. The EU referendum is today – the results are expected to be announced around 0400 UTC on Friday. The result announcement and build-up to the result announcement will likely impact the EURGBP greatly. If the UK remain in the EU, the GBP is very likely to strengthen. If the UK leave the EU, the GBP is very likely to weaken. The EURGBP is likely to be very volatile over the next 36 hours.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD 23.06.2016

The moving averages have crossed again and are providing no clear direction. This supports Monday’s chart analysis that price is choppy and indecisive. Trend lines have formed and are closing-in on price. We may see price move between these areas and continue to consolidate. The trend line resistance is currently sitting at the 1.1360 area. The trend line support is currently sitting at the 1.1160 area. Another more aggressive trend support line has formed and is currently sitting at 1.1280.

US Unemployment Claims is due to be released at 1230 UTC today. This event may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. EU referendum voting starts today and the results should be announced by 0400 UTC Friday. The EU Referendum will likely highly impact the EUR pairs, as well the GBP pairs. Expect the EURUSD to be very volatile over the next 36 hours.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Charts

GBPUSD 23.06.2016

The GBPUSD had very little direction in yesterday’s trading sessions but price did find some degree of dynamic support at one of the moving averages and has moved higher. If price retraces before moving higher, there could be some buying opportunities at the previous resistance (now support) at 1.4760, at the aggressive trend line support (currently sitting at 1.4730) and at the moving averages.

The GBP had been weakening due to Brexit uncertainty. Recent poll results suggest that ‘Remain’ is back in the lead – the GBP has consequently been strengthening. US Unemployment Claims is due to be released at 1230 UTC today. This event may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. EU referendum voting starts today and the results should be announced by 0400 UTC Friday. Expect the GBPUSD to be very volatile over the next 36 hours. If the UK remain in the EU, the GBP is very likely to strengthen. If the UK leave the EU, the GBP is very likely to weaken.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD 23.06.2016

As mentioned since the beginning of this month, the NZDUSD is in a clear and confirmed uptrend. As also mentioned since the beginning of this week, price has shown some very bullish signs and has continued to move higher (the recent bullish move gaining extra momentum when price moved out of the tight consolidation mentioned in the chart analysis on June 21st). If price pulls back in today’s trading sessions, there could be buying opportunities around the dynamic support of either of the bullish moving averages and around the potential upwards channel support (currently sitting around 0.7155). If the bullish move continues, we may see price stall or reverse the upwards channel resistance.

As mentioned several times since the beginning of this month, we have seen some big moves higher on the NZDUSD due to the negative and hesitant USD outlook – caused by the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure released June 3rd. The move is also due to the positive change in the New Zealand’s interest rate. The driving force for this pair has been positive NZD economic news against a hesitant USD. US Unemployment Claims is due to be released at 1230 UTC today. This event may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. EU referendum voting starts today and the results should be announced by 0400 UTC Friday. The EU Referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs. Expect the next 36 hours to be very volatile in the Forex markets.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD 23.06.2016

The USDCAD had started to move lower after the strong bullish retracement, but as mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, the bearish move was struggling and we have seen some bullish momentum. The bearish moving averages are tightening and price has found various support levels – suggesting that price could now move higher. Potential long opportunities could present themselves around the newly formed trend support. Price may stall or reverse around the trend resistance line created by the recent minor swing highs. There is also a possibility that price could consolidate between the longer term and tightening trend lines (identified on the chart).

US Unemployment Claims is due to be released at 1230 UTC today. This event may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. EU referendum voting starts today and the results should be announced by 0400 UTC Friday. The EU Referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs. Expect the next 36 hours to be very volatile in the Forex markets.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF 23.06.2016

As predicted in yesterday’s chart analysis, a downside break of the range was more likely than a break to the upside. If the downside move is going to continue, there could be opportunities to go short around the trend line resistance (currently sitting at 0.9605).

US Unemployment Claims is due to be released at 1230 UTC today. This event may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. EU referendum voting starts today and the results should be announced by 0400 UTC Friday. The EU Referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs. Expect the next 36 hours to be very volatile in the Forex markets.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY 23.06.2016

The USDJPY tested the range resistance identified in yesterday’s analysis and is currently moving lower. Nevertheless, the moving averages have crossed bullish and the trend line support continues to hold. If price is going to move higher, there could be buying opportunities around the trend line support (currently sitting around 104.10), at the break of the horizontal resistance at 104.85 or as price returns to the horizontal resistance as support. If price continues to range, there may be trading opportunities when price finally breaks out.

US Unemployment Claims is due to be released at 1230 UTC today. This event may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. EU referendum voting starts today and the results should be announced by 0400 UTC Friday. The EU Referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs. Expect the next 36 hours to be very volatile in the Forex markets.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD 23.06.2016

Price has closed below the clear horizontal support at 1276.85 and is moving lower. The moving averages look very bearish, suggesting that the downside move could continue. Potential selling opportunities exist on GOLD around the previous clear support level (now resistance) at 1276.85, at the bearish moving averages and at the bearish trend line resistance (currently sitting at 1269.50).