Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 21, 2016


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD 21.06.2016

The AUDUSD continues to move higher in an attempt to test the previous swing high at 0.7490. The moving averages are bullish are continue to widen, suggesting that the bullish momentum is not weakening yet. Today’s trading sessions may provide some buying opportunities, especially if price pulls back before moving higher. Long opportunities may exist at the previous resistance (now support) at 0.7400 and at the dynamic support of the bullish moving averages.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some big moves higher on AUDUSD (if negative USD economic news continues to be released – indicating that a rise in interest rates is not in the near future). The US Fed Chair, Yellen, will testify today at 1400 UTC. This may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP 21.06.2016

As predicted in yesterday’s analysis, the EURGBP closed below the support level at 0.7780 and continued to move lower. Price has been bullish during the Asian session – this could be the start of a short-term retracement before a move lower. Selling opportunities could present themselves at the previous support level (now resistance) of 0.7780, at the 23.6% and 38.2% Fib levels and at the bearish moving averages.

The GBP has been weakening due to Brexit uncertainty. Recent poll results suggest that ‘Remain’ is back in the lead, the GBP has consequently been strengthening. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum will likely impact the EURGBP greatly. There is EUR related news (German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 0900 UTC and a speech from President Draghi at 1300 UTC), but these events are not expected to provide any major movement – most traders and investors are likely to be waiting for the EU referendum results. If the UK remain in the EU, the GBP is very likely to strengthen. If the UK leave the EU, the GBP is very likely to weaken.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD 21.06.2016

The moving averages continue to be bullish but, as mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, price is looking choppy and perhaps even indecisive. A potential trend line resistance has formed and is currently sitting at the 1.1370 area. A potential trend line support has formed also, this is currently sitting at the 1.1150 area. We may see price move between these 2 areas and continue to consolidate.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some moves higher on EURUSD (if negative USD economic news continues to be released – indicating that a rise in interest rates is not in the near future). There is EUR related news today (German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 0900 UTC and a speech from President Draghi at 1300 UTC) and the US Fed Chair, Yellen, will testify today at 1400 UTC. These events may have very little impact on the EURUSD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. The EU referendum is this week.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD 21.06.2016

The GBPUSD continues to look over-extended so we may see a bearish move in today’s trading sessions. Price has closed above the swing high at 1.4595, suggesting that the longer-term downtrend is weakening and longer-term we may see price reverse and be bullish. If price pulls back before moving higher, there are potential buying areas at the 23.6% fib level (1.4550), the 38.2% fib level (1.4450) and the moving averages.

The GBP has been weakening due to Brexit uncertainty. Recent poll results suggest that ‘Remain’ is back in the lead, the GBP has consequently been strengthening. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum will likely impact the GBPUSD greatly. If the UK remain in the EU, the GBP is very likely to strengthen. If the UK leave the EU, the GBP is very likely to weaken.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD 21.06.2016

NZDUSD is in a clear and confirmed uptrend. In yesterday’s trading sessions, price spent the day quietly testing the upwards channel resistance, which was identified in yesterday’s chart analysis. Price is currently in a tight sideways consolidation between 0.7100 and 0.7125. If price breaks to the upside of this consolidation, we may see the upwards channel resistance tested again in today’s trading sessions. If price breaks to the downside of this consolidation, we may see price move to the upwards channel support (currently sitting at 0.7010) or the horizontal support at 0.6970. Buying opportunities could exist at the previous resistance (now support) at 0.7080 and at the moving averages.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month and the positive New Zealand dollar interest rate release, we may see some big moves higher on NZDUSD. From a fundamental view, this chart and pair is of high interest. The driving force for this pair is positive NZD news against a hesitant USD. The US Fed Chair, Yellen, will testify today at 1400 UTC. This may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD 21.06.2016

The USDCAD is moving lower after the strong bullish retracement. The moving averages have crossed bearish and continue to widen – suggesting that price could continue to move lower. Due to the strength of the recent retracement, it could be that there is not enough bearish momentum to make a swing lower. We may see price form a large double bottom price pattern or start to rally and create a higher high. Overall, the USDCAD currency pair seems a little indecisive and there is no clear technical indication of where this pair is likely to move next.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some moves lower on USDCAD. With recent positive economic figures from Canada and the partial recovery in the oil markets, the Canadian dollar is set to strengthen. Taking all of this into consideration, the USDCAD may present some very profitable selling opportunities. The US Fed Chair, Yellen, will testify today at 1400 UTC. This may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF 21.06.2016

The USDCHF continues to range (as mentioned in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is moving sideways between the horizontal support at 0.9580 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9680. From a technical view, it’s a matter of waiting for a potential breakout trade. Currently, the moving averages are bearish and price is making lower highs, suggesting that a downside break is more likely than a break to the upside.

If poor economic data continues to be released from the US, this pair is likely to move lower. The US Fed Chair, Yellen, will testify today at 1400 UTC. This may have very little impact on the USD as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY 21.06.2016

The USDJPY continues to look very bearish but is currently potentially forming a sideways channel. The channel support is at 103.70 and the channel resistance is at 104.80. From a technical view, it’s a matter of waiting for a potential breakout trade.

If poor economic data continues to be released from the US, this pair is likely to move lower. The US Fed Chair, Yellen, will testify today at 1400 UTC. This may have very little impact on the USD though as most traders and investors are waiting the results of the EU referendum. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD 21.06.2016

GOLD bounced off the clear support again at in yesterday’s trading sessions. Price is nearing the support level again, this may provide a long opportunity. There is a potential triangular consolidation pattern forming. The moving averages are providing no clear direction, confirming that a consolidation could be taking place. A break to the downside of the triangle pattern is likely to provide a larger move than a break to the upside.