Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 20, 2016

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD has moved higher as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis. Price gaped over the weekend and has found support at the resistance level of 0.7420, which was also identified in Friday’s chart analysis. If the AUDUSD pulls back to the 0.7420 area before it moves higher, there may be an opportunity to buy the currency pair at that area. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are starting to widen, suggesting that price may continue moving higher.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some big moves higher on AUDUSD (if negative USD economic news continues to be released – indicating that a rise in interest rates is not in the near future). The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As predicted in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP has formed a double top pattern and has moved lower. The moving averages are currently bearish and continue widen – suggesting that price could continue to move lower. Price has recently closed below the swing low on June 7th, also suggesting that the recent uptrend is losing momentum and could now reverse. There could be selling opportunities as we test the dynamic resistance of the moving averages. Minor support has been identified at 0.7780. There could be selling opportunities if price closes below this level.

The GBP has been weakening due to Brexit uncertainty. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum will likely impact the EURGBP greatly.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As predicted in Friday’s chart analysis, price has moved higher. The moving averages have crossed bullish but price is looking choppy and perhaps even indecisive. There might be an opportunity to go long in today’s trading sessions but I expect price to consolidate between the swing high at 1.1415 and the swing lows at 1.1140.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some moves higher on EURUSD (if negative USD economic news continues to be released – indicating that a rise in interest rates is not in the near future). The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may cause some unexpected and volatile moves on the EURUSD currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has moved higher as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis. The GBPUSD does now look a little over-extended so we may see a bearish move in today’s trading sessions. Price has closed above the swing high at 1.4595, suggesting that the longer-term downtrend is weakening and longer-term we may see price reverse and be bullish.

The GBP has been weakening due to Brexit uncertainty. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may cause some unexpected and volatile moves on the GBPUSD currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Charts

NZDUSD is in a clear and confirmed uptrend. Price found support at the moving averages and moved higher during Friday’s trading sessions, both of which were mentioned in Friday’s chart analysis. The NZDUSD continues to move within the potential upward channel and is currently testing the channel resistance. We could now see price retrace or bounce off the channel resistance before making an attempt to move higher. Buying opportunities could exist at the previous resistance (now support) at 0.7080 and at the moving averages. If price is very bearish in today’s trading sessions, we may see price test the upwards channel support (currently sitting at 0.70000) or the horizontal support at 0.6970. Both of these areas could present long opportunities.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month and the positive New Zealand dollar interest rate release, we may see some big moves higher on NZDUSD. From a fundamental view, this chart and pair is of high interest. The driving force for this pair is positive NZD news against a hesitant USD. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Charts

The USDCAD has finally started to move lower after the strong bullish retracement. The bullish moving averages are starting to tighten and price is moving and closing below the moving averages – suggesting that price could continue to move lower. Due to the strength of the retracement, it could be that there is not enough bearish momentum to make a swing lower. We may see price form a large double bottom or simply now rally and create a higher high. Overall, the USDCAD currency pair seems a little indecisive and there is no clear technical indication of where this pair is likely to move next.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some moves lower on USDCAD. With recent positive economic figures from Canada and the partial recovery in the oil markets, the Canadian dollar is set to strengthen. Taking all of this into consideration, the USDCAD may present some very profitable selling opportunities. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF is currently consolidating (as mentioned in Friday’s chart analysis) and is currently testing the consolidation support. Price is moving sideways between the horizontal support at 0.9580 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9680. From a technical view, it’s a matter of waiting for a potential breakout trade.

If poor economic data continues to be released from the US, this pair is likely to move lower. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY continues to be very bearish. Price is currently retracing after the recent move lower.  Selling opportunities could exist around the 50% and 61.8% fib levels (105.00 and 105.30), the longer-term bearish moving average and the bearish trend line (currently sitting at 106.00).

If poor economic data continues to be released from the US, this pair is likely to move lower. The EU referendum is this week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD bounced off the clear support at 1277.00 in Friday’s trading sessions. Price is nearing the support level again, this may provide some long opportunities. If price moves and closes below the support level, short opportunities may exist as we test the support level as resistance. Price has formed a minor trend line resistance (currently sitting at 1292.50). If the trend line resistance and horizontal support hold, price may squeeze tightly between these areas and eventually break out in either direction (likely the downside).

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