Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 17, 2016


AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD 17.06.2016

The AUDUSD continues to retrace after the recent bullish swing high. The moving averages are currently tightening and it looks like we may see a bullish moving average cross in today’s trading sessions – suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening and buying power is strengthening. If the AUDUSD does start to rally higher, there is a minor resistance level at 0.7420 – we may see the bullish move stall or reverse at this area.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some big moves higher on AUDUSD (if negative USD economic news continues to be released – indicating that a rise in interest rates is not in the near future). US Building Permits data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This may provide some insight into how close the US are to raising interest rates. If a poor figure is released, we may witness a stronger USD sell-off than usual. The EU referendum is next week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP 17.06.2016

EURGBP had a failed attempt to swing higher in yesterday’s trading sessions and has created a clear resistance at 0.7980. We witnessed a little bullish bounce off yesterday’s identified horizontal support at 0.7900 but price was overall bearish. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are currently widening – suggesting that we may see a move lower in today’s trading sessions. There is clear support at 0.7880.  There is a possibility of sideways price action between the 0.7880 support and the 0.7980 resistance.

The GBP has been weakening due to Brexit uncertainty. If poll results continue to suggest a possibility of the UK leaving the EU, we may see EURGBP continue to move higher as the GBP weakens. Recent poll results indicated a greater lead in support of leaving the EU. Yesterday’s tragic shooting may cause some added support for remaining in the EU and we could now see a bullish turning point for an uncertain and weakening sterling.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD 17.06.2016

Yesterday, the EURUSD finished reversing the impact of nonfarm payrolls and has since moved higher. The strength of the bullish move and the tightening of the bearish moving averages suggest that we could see price move higher. If price pulls back before pushing higher, there is a potential area for buying opportunity at the swing low and psychological level of 1.1200.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some moves higher on EURUSD (if negative USD economic news continues to be released – indicating that a rise in interest rates is not in the near future). US Building Permits data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This may provide some insight into how close the US are to raising interest rates. If a poor figure is released, we may witness a stronger USD sell-off than usual – pushing the EURUSD higher. The EU referendum is next week. The results and build-up to this referendum will likely cause extra volatility on the EURUSD.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD 17.06.2016

The GBPUSD closed below the tight consolidation and moved lower in yesterday’s trading sessions (as mentioned in yesterday’s Forex analysis). Since the bearish move, the moving averages have crossed bullish and price has formed a higher high – indicating that the sell-off is weakening and that we could have some potential upside movement. Potential buying areas exist around the previous resistance (now support) at 1.4210 and around the dynamic support of the moving averages. There is also the very early formation of a bullish channel.

The GBP has been weakening due to Brexit uncertainty. If poll results continue to suggest a possibility of the UK leaving the EU, we may see GBPUSD continue to move lower. Recent poll results indicated a greater lead in support of leaving the EU. Yesterday’s tragic shooting may cause some added support for remaining in the EU and we could now see a bullish turning point for an uncertain and weakening sterling. US Building Permits data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD 17.06.2016

NZDUSD is in a clear and confirmed uptrend. Price continues to find support at the 0.6975 area. The bearish moving averages were tightening in yesterday’s analysis and have now crossed and are looking bullish. Price has also formed a steady upwards channel. All of this indicating that price has a lot of support and that we may start to see price rally and potentially start a swing higher. Long opportunities could exist at the 0.6975 horizontal support, at the upwards channel support (currently sitting at 0.6990) and at the moving averages. There is minor resistance at 0.7080, this may stall or reverse price as it attempts to ascend.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month and the positive New Zealand dollar interest rate release, we may see some big moves higher on NZDUSD. From a fundamental view, this chart and pair is of high interest. US Building Permits data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This may provide some insight into how close the US are to raising interest rates. If a poor figure is released, we may witness a stronger USD sell-off than usual – pushing the NZDUSD higher. The EU referendum is next week. The results and build-up to this referendum will likely cause extra volatility on the NZDUSD. New Zealand continue to release positive economic figures. The driving force for this pair is positive NZD news against a hesitant USD.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD 17.06.2016

The USDCAD is retracing after the recent move lower. Price has passed the 23.6%, 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% fib levels! Currently, price is very bullish and there is very little stopping the bullish retracement.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some moves lower on USDCAD. With recent positive economic figures from Canada and the partial recovery in the oil markets, the Canadian dollar is set to strengthen. Taking all of this into consideration, the USDCAD may present some very profitable selling opportunities. US Building Permits data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This may provide some insight into how close the US are to raising interest rates. If a poor figure is released, we may witness a stronger USD sell-off than usual – pushing the USDCAD lower. There is also Canadian Core CPI at 1230 UTC today. The EU referendum is next week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF 17.06.2016

The USDCHF is currently consolidating and price is moving sideways between the horizontal support at 0.9580 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9680. From a technical view, it’s a matter of waiting for a potential breakout trade.

If poor economic data continues to be released from the US, this pair is likely to move lower. US Building Permits data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This may provide some insight into how close the US are to raising interest rates. If a poor figure is released, we may witness a stronger USD sell-off than usual – pushing the USDCHF lower. The EU referendum is next week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY 17.06.2016

The USDJPY continues to be very bearish. Price is currently retracing after the recent move lower.  Selling opportunities could exist around the 50% and 61.8% fib levels (105.00 and 105.30) and the bearish trend line (currently sitting at 106.00).

If poor economic data continues to be released from the US, this pair is likely to move lower.  US Building Permits data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. This may provide some insight into how close the US are to raising interest rates. If a poor figure is released, we may witness a stronger USD sell-off than usual – pushing the USDJPY lower. The EU referendum is next week. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD 17.06.2016

GOLD initially had a bullish move in yesterday’s trading sessions. This was strongly reversed though, creating a large bearish engulfing and rejection candle on the daily chart (see yesterday’s inter-day analysis for a potential trade). The bullish moving averages are tightening and price is starting to look bearish. There is a minor support level at 1276.80. If price moves below this level, there could be opportunities to sell GOLD at the break of the support or if price returns to the support as resistance.