Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 16, 2016


AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD 16.06.2016

The AUDUSD has moved higher after being in a retracement phase after a major swing higher. Price has found support at the long-term trend support line – this could be the start of a rally that may attempt a swing higher. The bearish moving averages are also tightening and we could soon see a bullish moving average cross, suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening and buying power is strengthening. If the AUDUSD does start to rally higher, there is a minor resistance level at 0.7420 – we may see the bullish move stall or price reverse at this area. If the AUDUSD moves lower before moving higher, we may see support again at the long-term bullish trend line.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some big moves higher on AUDUSD (if negative USD economic news continues to be released – indicating that a rise in interest rates is not in the near future). US CPI data and US Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. Yesterday’s Fed rate decision and following press conference was as expected, providing very little movement in USD pairs. Positive Australian employment figures were released at 0130 UTC. This may bring added strength to the AUD as greater speculation of a positive interest rate change is becoming more likely. The EU referendum is set for a week today. The results and build-up to this referendum may impact all currency pairs, not just GBP and EUR pairs.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP 16.06.2016

EURGBP has found support at the identified strong support area in yesterday’s analysis (0.7900). The market has been bullish since finding support and looks like it is going to attempt a swing higher. If we see a bearish move at some point in today’s trading sessions, there could be buying opportunity at the long-term trend line (currently resting at 0.7930) or off the support (currently resistance) at 0.7965.

The GBP continues to weaken as Brexit uncertainty looms. If poll results continue to suggest a possibility of the UK leaving the EU, we may see EURGBP continue to move higher as the GBP weakens. Recent poll results indicated a greater lead in support of leaving the EU. There is GBP Retail Sales scheduled at 0830 UTC. Unless the data is significantly different to expectation, this news is not likely to cause long-term direction on GBP pairs – Brexit is currently the main driven force in sterling.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

eurusd 16.06.2016

The EURUSD found support at the bullish trend line identified in the analysis on 14/06/2016. Since then, price has been very bullish and has moved and closed above both moving averages – indicating that price could still move higher. Potential areas for buying opportunities exist if price pullbacks before moving higher. There is a possible inverted head and shoulder pattern forming on EURUSD (marked on the uploaded chart) and price could also find dynamic support at one of the moving averages. A possible area where a bullish run may stall or reverse is the minor resistance area and psychological area at 1.1300.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some moves higher on EURUSD but Brexit is looming and could depreciate the EUR. US CPI data and US Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. Yesterday’s Fed rate decision and following press conference was as expected, providing very little movement in USD pairs. The EU referendum is set for a week today. The results and build-up to this referendum is likely to have a clear impact on the EUR.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD 16.06.2016

The GBPUSD continues to be bearish and has already provided so many short selling opportunities. The recent bearish move has retraced slightly, as mentioned in yesterday’s analysis. Price has found resistance at the 23.6 fib level and is currently in a tight sideways consolidation (1.4155-1.4205). If price breaks to the upside of the consolidation, potential areas for short selling opportunities are at the 38.2% fib level and minor resistance sitting at 1.4280, the 50% fib level at 1.4345 and the previous swing low at 1.4375.

Pound sterling weakness is heavily due to the uncertainty caused by the EU referendum. If poll results continue to suggest a possibility of the UK leaving the EU, we may see GBP pairs continue to move lower. If polls start suggesting that staying in the EU is more certain, then GBP will likely start a strong rally. There is GBP Retail Sales news at 0830 UTC today. Unless the data is significantly different to expectation, this news is not likely to cause major movement or provide any direction on GBP pairs – Brexit is currently the main driven force in sterling.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

NZDUSD 16.06.2016

NZDUSD is in a clear and confirmed uptrend. Price closed above the trend resistance line and has moved higher (as predicted in yesterday’s analysis). The bearish moving averages are tightening, suggesting that price may still move higher and could attempt a swing higher. Long opportunities could exist if NZDUSD pulls back to either of the moving averages.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month and the positive New Zealand dollar interest rate release, we may see some big moves higher on NZDUSD. From a fundamental view, this chart and pair is of high interest. US CPI data and US Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. Yesterday’s Fed rate decision and following press conference was as expected, providing very little movement in USD pairs. New Zealand released a positive GDP figure at 2245 UTC. The driving force for this pair is positive NZD news against a hesitant USD (due to Brexit).

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD 16.06.2016

The USDCAD is retracing after the recent move lower. Price has passed the 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% fib levels. There may be possible short-term buying opportunities as price retraces and a longer-term short selling opportunity as price reaches the 61.8% fib level (1.2960). Currently though, price is very bullish and there is very little stopping the bullish retracement.

Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some moves lower on USDCAD. With recent positive economic figures from Canada and the partial recovery in the oil markets, the Canadian dollar is set to strengthen. Taking all of this into consideration, the USDCAD may present some very profitable selling opportunities. US CPI data and US Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. Yesterday’s Fed rate decision and following press conference was as expected, providing very little movement in USD pairs.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF 16.06.2016

As predicted in yesterday’s post, the USDCHF has moved lower and is currently testing the previous swing low. If price temporarily reverses, there are potential selling opportunities at the bearish trend line (currently sitting at 0.9645) and the minor horizontal resistance at 0.9620 (previously support). The moving averages have become bearish and are widening, suggesting that a bearish run is likely.

If poor economic data continues to be released from the US, this pair is likely to move lower. US CPI data and US Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. Yesterday’s Fed rate decision and following press conference was as expected, providing very little movement in USD pairs. With recent poor and hesitant US economic data, and with Brexit looming, we may see some weakness in the USD and we could see the USDCHF continue to move lower.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY 16.06.2016

As identified in yesterday’s analysis, the resistance at 106.35 was tested again and has moved significantly lower. Due to the large bearish move, there are very little technical to suggest possible short selling entry areas.

If poor economic data continues to be released from the US, this pair is likely to move lower. US CPI data and US Unemployment Claims is set to be released at 1230 UTC today. Yesterday’s Fed rate decision and following press conference was as expected, providing very little movement in USD pairs.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

XAUUSD 16.06.2016

GOLD moved and closed above the minor resistance at 1286.70 and continues to move higher. Due to the strength of the bullish move, there is very little technical analysis that can be provided to assess potential buying areas. If price retraces significantly, there is a clear long-term trend line currently sitting at 1286.60.