Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 15, 2016
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The AUDUSD has been in a retracement phase after a major swing higher. Price has found support at the long-term trend support line (identified in yesterday’s analysis), this could be the start of a rally that may attempt to swing higher. The bearish moving averages are also tightening, suggesting that bearish momentum is weakening and buying power is strengthening. If the AUDUSD does start to rally, there is a minor resistance and psychological level at 0.7400 – we may see the bullish move stall or price reverse at this area.
Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some big moves higher on AUDUSD (if negative USD economic news continues to be released – indicating that a rise in interest rates is not in the near future). US PPI data is set to be released at 1230 UTC today and US Crude Oil Inventories will be released at 1430 UTC today. All eyes on are the FOMC statement and Federal Fund Rate though. With recent poor US economic data and with Brexit looming, the Fed are expected to hold any rate changes for the time being. This may cause some weakness in the USD. The Fed related news is at 1800-1830 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour
EURGBP is starting to retrace after the recent swing higher – price is forming some minor lower lows and the bullish moving averages are tightening. The market may present some buying opportunities if price retraces back to the previous horizontal resistance (now support) at 0.7900. The longer-term trend line now also rests around the 0.7880-0.7900 area, as well as the 100 moving average – creating a potentially strong support area.
The GBP continues to weaken as Brexit uncertainty looms. If poll results continue to suggest a possibility of the UK leaving the EU, we may see EURGBP continue to move higher as the GBP weakens. Recent poll results indicated a greater lead in support of leaving the EU. There is GBP Average Earnings Index and Claimant Count Change news scheduled at 0830 UTC. Unless the data is significantly different to expectation, this news is not likely to cause long-term direction on GBP pairs – Brexit is currently the main driven force in sterling.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The market has been reversing the bullish impact of nonfarm payrolls since 09/06/2016 but price is currently finding support at the trend line support identified in yesterday’s analysis. Taking into consideration that the nonfarm payrolls bullish impact has nearly been completely reversed, that price is finding support and that the bearish moving averages are tightening, we may start to see some strength return to the EURUSD. Possible areas where a bullish run may stall or reverse are the minor resistance areas at 1.1235 and 1.1300.
Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some big moves higher on EURUSD, if negative USD economic news continues to be released. Unlike the AUDUSD though, Brexit weighs on the euro and we may not see such strong bullish moves. There is USD related news at 1230 UTC and 1430 UTC today but all eyes on are the FOMC statement and Federal Fund Rate though. With recent poor US economic data and with Brexit looming, the Fed are expected to hold any rate changes for the time being. This may cause some weakness in the USD and we may see the EURUSD move higher. The Fed related news is at 1800-1830 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour
The GBPUSD continues to be bearish and has already provided so many short selling opportunities. The recent bearish move is now looking a little over-extended and there could now be a possible short-term retracement. Potential areas for short selling opportunities are at the 38.2% fib level and minor resistance sitting at 1.4280, the 50% fib level at 1.4345 and the previous swing low at 1.4375.
Pound sterling weakness is heavily due to the uncertainty caused by the EU referendum. If poll results continue to suggest a possibility of the UK leaving the EU, we may see GBP pairs continue to move lower. If polls start suggesting that staying in the EU is more certain, then GBP will likely start a strong rally. There is GBP Average Earnings and Claimant Count Change news at 0830 UTC today. Unless the data is significantly different to expectation, this news is not likely to cause major movement or provide any direction on GBP pairs – Brexit is currently the main driven force in sterling.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
NZDUSD is in a clear and confirmed uptrend. Price is currently retracing after a price swing higher. The bearish momentum will likely continue until price closes above the bearish diagonal resistance. The moving averages are bearish, suggesting that the retracement continues for now.
Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month and the positive New Zealand dollar interest rate release, we may see some big moves higher on NZDUSD. From a fundamental view, this chart and pair is of high interest. There is USD related news at 1230 UTC and 1430 UTC today but all eyes on are the FOMC statement and Federal Fund Rate though. With recent poor US economic data and with Brexit looming, the Fed are expected to hold any rate changes for the time being. This may cause some weakness in the USD and we may see the NZDUSD move higher. The Fed related news is at 1800-1830 UTC today. There is also a NZD GDP release at 2245 UTC. Today could be a very active day for the NZDUSD.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD is retracing after the recent move lower. Price has passed the 23.6% fib level and the more significant 38.2% fib level. There may be possible short-term buying opportunities as price retraces and longer-term short selling opportunities as we reach the 50% and 61.8% fib levels (1.2900 and 1.2960) and as the bullish moving averages tighten. There is also a previous support level (now potential resistance) at 1.2920.
Following the very poor nonfarm payrolls figure at the beginning of the month, we may see some moves lower on USDCAD. With recent positive economic figures from Canada and the partial recovery in the oil markets, the Canadian dollar is set to strengthen. Taking all of this into consideration, the USDCAD may present some very profitable selling opportunities. There is USD related news at 1230 UTC and 1430 UTC today but all eyes on are the FOMC statement and Federal Fund Rate though. With recent poor US economic data and with Brexit looming, the Fed are expected to hold any rate changes for the time being. This may cause some weakness in the USD and we may see the USDCAD start to move lower and attempt a new swing low. The Fed related news is at 1800-1830 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Since yesterday’s analysis, the USDCHF closed below the marked bullish channel. The bullish moving averages are also tightening. Both of these price events suggest that price may now attempt a move lower. If price reverses and the bullish retracement continues, there are potential reversal areas at the 38.2% fib level (0.9710) and the 50% fib level (0.9750).
If poor economic data continues to be released from the US, this pair is likely to move lower. There is USD related news at 1230 UTC and 1430 UTC today but all eyes on are the FOMC statement and Federal Fund Rate though. With recent poor US economic data and with Brexit looming, the Fed are expected to hold any rate changes for the time being. This may cause some weakness in the USD and we may see the USDCCHF move lower and attempt a new swing low. The Fed related news is at 1800-1830 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
The USDJPY has reversed at the previous support (now resistance) at 106.35. We may see the market test the resistance level again in today’s trading sessions. If the resistance does not hold, the next potential reversal area is the bearish trend line at 106.50-106.70.
If poor economic data continues to be released from the US, this pair is likely to move lower. There is USD related news at 1230 UTC and 1430 UTC today but all eyes on are the FOMC statement and Federal Fund Rate though. With recent poor US economic data and with Brexit looming, the Fed are expected to hold any rate changes for the time being. This may cause some weakness in the USD and we may see the USDJPY move lower and attempt a new swing low. The Fed related news is at 1800-1830 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
GOLD found support at the 50 moving average and attempted to swing higher since yesterday’s analysis. The bullish attempt failed and price is now steady at the newly formed resistance at 1286.70. If price is going to move higher, there may be good opportunities to go long as we test the 38.2% and 50% fib levels (1268.60 & 1262.00). We may also see price support continue at the 50 and 100 SMA’s. With such a strong move higher, we should expect a strong retracement though, presenting some selling opportunity.
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